NBA Odds, News & Notes: Luka Doncic Has Discovered a New Gear

Welcome to the latest edition of our Covers NBA Notebook. This week we’ll be looking at the Brooklyn Nets' playoff push, a disturbing trend in New York, and the undeniable brilliance of Luka Doncic. Let's dive in!

Raising the ceiling: Hello, Luka

Luka Doncic has scored 30 or more points in 39 of his 51 games this season, dished out at least nine assists in 32 games, and grabbed at least eight rebounds in 33 games. And yet, we are not appreciating how good Luka Doncic is playing lately.

What a night for Luka Doncic on his 25th birthday!

💫 30 PTS
💫 11 REB
💫 16 AST

His 39th 30-point triple-double.... now the 3rd-most such games in NBA history 👏 pic.twitter.com/5qbhOo8D2M

— NBA (@NBA) February 29, 2024

In the last month, Luka has averaged 34.3 points, 10.7 assists and 9.6 rebounds while being one made 3-pointer away from shooting 50/40/80.

No one ever wants to face Luka Doncic in the playoffs, but this stretch further emphasizes the No. 1 seed in the West, with the Mavericks most likely heading toward the No. 6 or No. 7 seed.

James Harden trade impacting Eastern Conference race

Remember when James Harden was traded to the Nets from the Rockets back in January 2021? We all knew that would impact the Eastern Conference playoff race that year. There is no surprise there.

The surprise is that it may impact the Eastern Conference playoff race this spring despite Harden already being two teams removed from Brooklyn.

The Nets have no 2024 draft pick, both their first- and second-rounders heading to Houston from that trade. They have no incentive to tank, arguably part of why they fired Jacques Vaughn over the All-Star break. As bad as Brooklyn’s offense has been — last in offensive rating across the last five games, 3.9 points behind the Blazers for No. 29 — the fourth-easiest remaining schedule could be enough to propel the Nets past the Hawks for the final Play-In spot in the East.

Making up four games with only 24 to go will be a challenge, but that could be two games with 22 to go by the end of the weekend, Atlanta going on the road for a two-game series in Brooklyn between tonight and Saturday.

And the Hawks have incentive to tank. Trae Young will be sidelined for at least four weeks, and his Tuesday hand surgery could cost him longer than that. They never meant to spiral; hiring Quinn Snyder a year ago this week for roughly $8 million per year was a clear sign the organization wants to win now, even if it continues to, well, not win now. But 2024 will be the last time Atlanta controls its own first-round draft pick until 2028. San Antonio owns the 2025 and 2027 picks and can swap for the 2026 pick, all as a result of that not-maligned-enough Dejounte Murray trade.

The Hawks could fall out of the playoffs and into the seventh-best lottery odds. Do not be surprised if Trae Young’s hand injury costs him the rest of the season.

Tonight's NBA best bets

The surest thing tonight in Barclays Center will be offensive malaise. Obviously, Atlanta is a better defensive team without Young. And Brooklyn’s offensive struggles defy description right now. As Tom Oldfield points out in his preview of that game, "I’m also wagering on the Under, with the Nets scuffling and the Hawks unable to call on Young’s shot-making. The hosts are in a big-time offensive rut, scoring 93 points or fewer in four of their last five contests, and sparkplug Cam Thomas has been ruled out with an ankle injury."

Frankly, an alternate Under as aggressive as Under 205.5 at +500 may hold value.

Pick: Under 224 (-110 at FanDuel)

Miami is on a five-game winning streak, an underdog in the first four of those games and all of them on the road. Three of them have come since the All-Star Break, exceeding the spread’s expectations by 11.5 points per game.

The Heat have not faced the Nuggets since the 2024 NBA Finals, so it would be understandable if some pent-up anger is under the Miami surface tonight. And with Denver on the second night of a back-to-back, this may be a moment for the Nuggets to ease up a touch.

Pick: Heat +5 (-110 at FanDuel)

NBA Trends: Not Thibodeau-ian at all

The Nets may have the worst offense in the last five games, but the worst defensive rating in the NBA in that stretch belongs to the New York Knicks. Notable mostly in that a few members of the Covers NBA crew saw value in Knicks’ futures to win the East at various points in late January and early February, including yours truly on January 27 at +1,600.

At that point, New York’s defensive rating in 13 games with OG Anunoby was 104.6. In the last five games — all without Anunoby as well as Julius Randle — that defensive rating has been 122.5.

The Knicks have some cushion, still up 1.5 games on the Heat and the 76ers for first-round home court, and Anunoby and Randle are both expected back on the floor in time, but Tom Thibodeau needs to right this trend before it slips much further.

Facing Steph Curry tonight will not help that cause, certainly not with AJ Salah backing Steph to do what he does best.

NBA futures update: Denver? Denver.

Four teams won their 40th game before losing their 20th this season, an old Phil Jackson metric for filtering out title contenders that has borne out over the last few decades. By beating the Kings last night, the Denver Nuggets became that fourth and final team.

The Nuggets remain the clear Western Conference favorite at +245 at DraftKings, and trail only the Celtics for the best NBA championship odds.

But Jamal Murray’s shin pain should give pause.

Nuggets head coach Mike Malone has effectively said Murray may not be healthy this season. The challenge will be managing his workload to keep Murray’s shin splints from becoming stress fractures or reactions. He can, and is, conceivably playing through the former, but if the injury becomes worse, Murray will have to sit for an extended period. There's no question the Nuggets would miss performances like this: 

Jamal Murray couldn't miss tonight, shooting 13-15 from the field and dropping 32 points in the Nuggets W 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/ZKSSzSOdiI

— NBA (@NBA) February 29, 2024

Denver is still a force without Murray, but in a playoff series, his absence would spell doom. And that possibility adds value to looking at the Thunder (+800 at BetMGM) and/or the Timberwolves (+850 at BetMGM) to win the Western Conference. One of those two should have home-court throughout the Western Conference playoffs, and if the defending champions have any reason to worry about their second-best player, the young upstarts may have more of a chance than those odds are giving them credit for.

Moneyline underdogs picks

Odds are not yet out on these games, but a few spots to keep an eye on …

Mavericks at Celtics on Friday: Luka on ESPN? There is always value there, particularly lately.

Hornets at 76ers on Friday: In the last 10 games, Philadelphia’s net rating has been 5.3 points worse than Charlotte’s. Extend that back to when Joel Embiid’s absence began, a 15-game stretch covering a month, and the 76ers' net rating has been the worst in the NBA, the only team worse than the Hornets’ in that same time.

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