The Toronto Raptors are one of basketball’s biggest enigma’s this season. Sometimes they look like they can compete with the top teams in the Eastern Conference. While others, a trip to the NBA Draft lottery seems in order.
The reality of the situation is that the Raptors are a play-in team and will be jockeying for position down the stretch of the regular season. Tonight, they’ll face off against an Indiana Pacers team also fighting to get into a play-in spot.
But the Raptors are big 9-point favorites for this matchup, with star Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton questionable with an ankle injury. Can Toronto cover this large spread at home, where they’ve won seven in a row?
I preview this East throwdown and bring you my best bet in NBA picks and predictions for Pacers vs. Raptors on March 22.
Pacers vs Raptors best odds
Pacers vs Raptors picks and predictions
The Raptors have clearly shown improvement since acquiring Jakob Poeltl at the NBA trade deadline, particularly on the defensive end of the floor. The team ranks ninth in defensive efficiency since inserting Poeltl in the starting lineup.
However, the Raps are still having issues in one area when it comes to that end of the floor, and that’s on the perimeter.
Toronto doesn’t allow a ton of 3-point attempts per game, but when they do, a lot of them are open looks. This is in part due to Toronto’s aggressive help defense — a good passing team can swing the ball around the perimeter for good shots.
As a result, the Raptors rank next-to-last in the NBA when it comes to opponent 3-point shooting percentage. And the Pacers aren’t half bad at shooting the 3-ball.
That’s because they have one of the best dead-eye shooters in the NBA in Buddy Hield. The Pacers shooting guard is having a great year shooting the ball, draining a ridiculous 42.5% of his attempts from beyond the arc this season.
Hield’s made threes prop is on the board at 3.5 in this game, with the Over getting nice plus money. Now, not having point guard Tyrese Haliburton has hurt his production a bit. Haliburton's one of the league leaders in assists and does a great job of finding Hield when he's open.
That said, he's still 10-for-23 from three over his last three games. Hield has also hit four or more threes in 56.9% of the games he's played this season. That includes twice against this Raptors team. On Jan. 2, he went 4-for-7 from 3-point range, and back on Nov. 12, he was 5-for-11.
With or without Haliburton, I expect the Pacers to try and attack the Raptors on the perimeter and that should mean a big shooting night for Hield. But big bonus points to this bet if Haliburton is able to suit up and feed the ball to the Pacers’ sharpshooter.
My best bet: Buddy Hield Over 3.5 3-pointers made (+130 at PointsBet)
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Pacers vs Raptors spread analysis
The Raptors opened this matchup as 8-point home favorites and have been bet up to -9 as of early Wednesday afternoon.
Now, there are a couple of reasons the Raptors are laying this many points in this Eastern Conference matchup. One, Toronto has won seven home games in a row straight up, going 6-1 against the spread. And two, Star Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton is questionable for this matchup with an ankle injury.
Haliburton has missed the last five games for the Pacers but it sounds like he could suit up for this matchup. And if he does, I would probably lean toward taking the points with Indiana here.
That's because, as I alluded to above, this is a strong 3-point shooting team. They rank 12th in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage and take the sixth-most attempts from deep per game. The Pacers rode that shooting, hitting 48% of their threes in an upset win over the conference-leading Milwaukee Bucks last week. Without Haliburton.
The Pacers have been a problem for the Raptors this season as well, winning both previous meetings. Indiana won 118-104 back on Nov. 12, and 122-114 on Jan. 2. Now, both those games were in Indiana but Toronto had trouble containing the Pacers’ shooters in both of those matchups.
And if this game turns into a shootout, you’re never really sure which Raptors team you will get. The team still struggles with its halfcourt offense and ranks 19th in offensive rating and 24th in effective field goal percentage since Poeltl has been in the starting lineup.
On top of all that, the Pacers know they need a win and could be more motivated here. I think the Raps win but covering nine points is asking a lot. But once again, make sure to keep an eye on the status of Haliburton before firing here.
Pacers vs Raptors Over/Under analysis
The total for this matchup hit the board at 234.5 and has seen little action so far. And that’s how I would approach this total. By staying away.
Yes, the Raptors' offense is still as up-and-down as can be found in the NBA, but they could find their rhythm against a Pacers team that ranks 25th in defensive rating and 27th in scoring defense. But once again, you just never know when it comes to the offense for the Raps.
While the defense allows the sixth-fewest points per game with Poeltl in the starting lineup. The Raps certainly have the ability to slow down the Pacers' shooters.
Then there's tempo. The Pacers play at a high pace, while the Raptors play at a much slower one. All that just means I just see too much variance in the outcomes for this matchup. Like I said, I’m staying away from the total.
Pacers vs Raptors betting trend to know
The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and the Raptors are 7-10 ATS when favored by 5-to-9.5 points this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Raptors.
Pacers vs Raptors game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 22, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Indiana, Sportsnet |
Pacers vs Raptors key injuries
