Pelicans vs Cavaliers Picks and Predictions: Slow Start in Cleveland

This is one of the NBA’s most underrated delightful days... nine games spread across nine hours of tips with an emphasis in the afternoon? All part of a larger celebration of Marin Luther King Jr.? An absolute delight.

And this year, enjoying the New Orleans Pelicans today fits all too well, one of the insurgent young teams that make the NBA increasingly entertaining.

Right along with them, the Cleveland Cavaliers look like a surprise contender in the East. Which one of the youth movements led by a veteran guard will prevail this afternoon?

Find out in our NBA picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. Cavaliers below. 

Pelicans vs Cavaliers best odds

Pelicans vs Cavaliers picks and predictions

To acknowledge a personal fault, the Covers.com assignment editor knows early games are not my forte. An afternoon tip requires an early morning handicap at the absolute latest, and this handicapper does not believe in early mornings unless they are accompanied by donuts, bacon, and a Belgian beer.

Yet, the assignment editor handed over this game, anyway. Why would he ever do such a torturous thing? Most likely because he knew how quickly the best bet would be settled upon.

My hatred of early mornings is comparable to NBA players’ displeasure with anything that disrupts their mid-afternoon routines. In a season beset by travel and back-to-backs for six full months, it is startlingly rare how often NBA players get a full 7-9 hours of sleep overnight.

It happens, but not as often as it should given their livelihood. Not to mention, these are multimillionaires in the primes of their lives; going to bed early even when able is not high on many of their priority lists.

So most of them take a nap in the afternoon. This is not a joke, it’s a reality.

There will be no midafternoon naps in Cleveland today (or in Milwaukee, Washington D.C., Atlanta or Minneapolis, for that matter).

When the time comes for these teams to dial it up, they will. But early on, right in the middle of nap time, the young teams will struggle. And they are yet young. CJ McCollum and Donovan Mitchell may be established veterans who have turned these teams from feel-good stories into genuine contenders, but they are surrounded by youth movements. That was part of why New Orleans and Cleveland traded for them in the first place.

Of these teams’ current rotations — current as in players who have averaged at least 20 minutes and played consistently since New Year’s — four players 24 or younger are relied upon by each. That is four out of six primary contributors for the Pelicans and four out of eight for the Cavaliers.

Betting on a sluggish first half is betting on 24-year-old Naji Marshall not going to bed early on Sunday night, as an example. Marshall has a 24.8% usage rate since January 1 in 32.1 minutes per game. If he is misfiring, New Orleans’ offense will feel that. And that is just one such potential misstep.

Flip to the other side of the ball and if 22-year-old Darius Garland needs a moment to wake up, particularly with Mitchell coming off an illness this week, then his 27.3% usage rate in 34.8 minutes per game may turn into a Cleveland detriment.

Fading the total in the first half specifically allows for these youngsters to kick into gear late.

My best bet: First-half Under 108.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

Pelicans vs Cavaliers spread analysis

The Pelicans as 6.5-point underdogs may be enticing, but the recent frustration is they have struggled without both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson of late.

New Orleans has lost five of its last eight against the spread. In gambling terms, the Pelicans have been decently competitive, only two of those five ATS losses coming by more than a bucket off the expected spread, but the only ATS wins have come against the dregs of the league at Detroit, at Washington, and against Houston.

The Cavaliers have not exactly been lighting the world afire of late, going 2-4 ATS in their last six, but they also have not been favored by this wide a margin since December 19 against Utah, a game Cleveland won by 23 points.

Pelicans vs Cavaliers Over/Under analysis

The full-game total of 222 or 222.5, depending on the book, fits more in line with the Cavaliers recently than the Pelicans.

Cleveland has played with a pregame total north of 225 only once in its last eight games, compared to 21 of New Orleans’ last 22 games coming with a pregame total of more than 225.

In fact, four of the Pelicans’ last eight games tipped with totals of 230 or more. Blame the lack of a snooze button, perhaps.

Pelicans vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

The Pelicans are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Cavaliers.

Pelicans vs Cavaliers game info

Pelicans vs Cavaliers key injuries

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