Pelicans vs Clippers Picks and Predictions: New Orleans Take Advantage of Shorthanded Clips

It's win or go home for the New Orleans Pelicans and Los Angeles Clippers on Friday night as they clash in the final play-in game of the NBA season.

NBA betting lines hit the board with the Clips as 4-point favorites but with Clippers superstar Paul George entering the league's health and safety protocols the line has shrunk to nearly a pick'em.

Here are our best free NBA betting picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. Clippers on April 15, with tipoff scheduled for 10 p.m. ET.

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Pelicans vs Clippers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with the Clippers between  -4.5 and -4.0, with the Over/Under as high as 217. Early money has come in on the Pelicans and the Under with the Clippers line as low as -3.5 as of Thursday afternoon with the total ticking down to 215.5.

With the news that George would miss tonight's contest, the line swung to Clippers -1 or PK although the total stayed steady.

When these teams faced off less than two weeks ago in Los Angeles, the Clippers won 119-100 as 2-point home faves.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Pelicans vs Clippers predictions

• Prediction: Pelicans +1 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 215.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Over 215.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 4/15/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Pelicans vs Clippers game info

• Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Friday, April 15, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT

Pelicans vs Clippers betting preview

Key injuries

Pelicans: Zion Williamson F (Out), Kira Lewis Jr.  G (Out).
Clippers: Paul George SF (Out), Luke Kennard G (Questionable), Kawhi Leonard F (Out).

Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Pelicans are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Clippers.

Pelicans vs Clippers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Clippers might have lost to the Timberwolves in their first play-in contest but they had looked great prior to that defeat, going 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread since Paul George rejoined the team on March 29. 

Unfortunately, the Clippers must have kicked Lady Luck's dog because they will once again be without PG-13 after he tested positive for COVID on Friday. That's a massive blow for the Clippers on both sides of the floor and even with Norman Powell finally healthy, they'll have a tough time keeping up with the Pelicans in this one. 

New Orleans has an explosive offense that has averaged 116.7 points per game while shooting a sizzling 48.5% from the floor since trading for CJ McCollum in the middle of February.

McCollum (24.3 ppg with the Pels) and Brandon Ingram (22.7 ppg) give NOLA a pair of dangerous shot-creators while Jonas Valanciunas (17.8 ppg, 54.4 FG%) is a force inside. 

Valanciunas has also helped the Pelicans rank third in the league in rebounding rate and they should be able to dominate L.A. on the glass with the Clips 28th in that category.  

With George sidelined with an elbow injury from just before Christmas until late March, the Clippers went 19-24 SU and ranked just 22nd in the NBA with a net rating of minus-3.5.

Meanwhile, the Pels are seventh in the league with a net rating of plus-4.7 over the last two months. We'll take New Orleans over hard-luck LA. 

Prediction: Pelicans +1 (-110 at Bet365)

Over/Under analysis

It's interesting that while the spread for this game swung 3.5 to 4 points with the news that George would be out, the total has stayed relatively steady. That's a testament to just how good George is on defense.

Before George injured his elbow in December, the Clippers were fourth in the NBA in defensive rating. In the next three months without him, they fell to 17th in that metric.  

Meanwhile, the Pelicans have struggled to guard teams all season, allowing opponents to shoot 47.1% from the field — the seventh-worst number in the league. 

The Pels dismantled the Spurs at home in their play-in contest on Wednesday, but they closed their regular season with a pair of ugly losses to the Warriors and Grizzlies. While losing to two of the best teams in the conference isn't a shocker, surrendering a total of 269 points in those games when those teams were emptying their benches is not a good look.

Keep in mind that this is easily the lowest total the Pels have seen since February 17 when they faced the Mavs with an O/U of 217, and they ended up combining for 243 points in that contest. With both teams likely to have some defensive lapses, we'll take the Over on a relatively low number. 

Prediction: Over 215.5 (-110 at William Hill)

Best bet

The line might have shifted significantly with George out of commission but his importance to the team might be even greater than that. Not only is he their best scoring option but he's also their top defender and an excellent rebounder and facilitator. 

We've seen just how much he means to this team when he rejoined them at the end of March and immediately sparked a come-from-behind win against Utah.

Beyond his actual contributions to the team, the breaking news that L.A. will be without its superstar will likely also be a confidence killer for the Clips psychologically after already suffering so many setbacks this season. 

It's certainly enough for us to switch our spread bet from the Clips to the Pels. 

Pick: Pelicans +1 (-110 at Bet365)

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