Pelicans vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions: Memphis Makes Statement Against NOLA

Two of the top teams in the West will face off on New Year's Eve when Zion Williamson and the conference-leading New Orleans Pelicans travel to take on Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies. This will mark the third of four matchups this season between the two, with the teams splitting the first two of the series thus far.

Can Morant make good on his bold proclamation that he isn't worried about any of his Western Conference competition, or will Zion & Co. continue to impressively assert the Pelicans atop a heated conference?

Continue reading for free NBA picks for the Pelicans vs. Grizzlies on Saturday, December 31.

Pelicans vs Grizzlies best odds

Pelicans vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

When it comes to the top of the West, it's hard to argue which team's blistering start to the 2022 season is most impressive. On one hand, there is the Grizzlies, who sit just 1.5 games back of the top spot despite having played very few games with their young core of Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane. It wasn't until Bane's return on December 23 that the three had played a game together this season.

Now they return home, fully healthy and ready to take on the Pelicans, who have arguably had the most impressive start to the 2022 season. After making some appreciable noise in last year's playoffs despite Zion Williamson's absence, the Pelicans are off to a 23-12 start.

They rank sixth in both offensive and defensive rating, and second in net rating, only trailing the Celtics. Willie Green has put together a cohesive unit, with the Pelicans ranking eighth in assist rate despite possessing a litany of scorers (Zion, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum) who could easily be detrimentally ball-dominant on any other team. New Orleans also controls the boards at a high level, with its 51.6% team rebounding rate ranking sixth

The Pels’ budding youth, behind their core, has also elevated their play. Between Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, Jose Alvarado, Naji Marshall, and Dyson Daniels,  any of the five are capable of stepping in on any given night.

With that youth comes some level of inexperience and carelessness. New Orleans ranks 19th in turnover rate and 16th in personal fouls per game. Memphis, who is also young but has accumulated more experience, ranks more favorably in both. 

The Grizzlies are also privy to take advantage of those areas of the matchup, ranking seventh in free throw attempts and ranking third in fast break points.

My best bet: Grizzlies -6 (-107 at Unibet)

Pelicans vs Grizzlies spread analysis

The spread opened with the Grizzlies as 5-point favorites but has moved a point up to -6 at the majority of shops.

The Pelicans are 19-16 against the spread this year, good for the ninth-best record. As road underdogs, however, they are 3-4 against the number. New Orleans has covered in four of its last five but has failed to cover in the four prior to that. The Pels were this large of underdogs just one time this season (+8 vs the Suns on Oct. 28) and lost that game by 13.

Memphis is 16-16-2 against the spread this season but has gone 9-4-1 against the spread as home favorites. The Grizzlies have failed to cover as favorites of six or more points in their last three tries, and have failed to cover in four of their last six overall.

Many will look at the moderately high spread in favor of the Grizzlies and look at recent results and rush to take the Pelicans, but few teams are as good as Memphis is at home (both straight up and against the spread) and possess matchup advantages from a talent and experience standpoint.

Pelicans vs Grizzlies Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 233 and has since moved up to 235.5 at most shops.

New Orleans is 21-14 to the Over, the second-highest rate of Overs in the league. On the road, it’s 14-11 O/U, and as underdogs, it’s a league-best 10-2. The Pels have gone Over in seven of their last eight but tonight's total marks the highest total of the season for them.

Memphis has played 18-15-1 to the Under this season, the third-highest Under rate in the league (45.5%). At home, however, the Grizz have gone 8-7-1 to the Over and as favorites, they have a more even record as well (14-13-1 to the Under). The Grizzlies have gone Under in five of their last six and have gone Under in the three games that had totals of 235 or higher.

Given the extremely high number on tonight's matchup, which is likely inflated from the last matchup, and given that this is uncharted territory for the Pelicans and Under-friendly territory for the Grizzlies, it may be best to look towards the Under in this game.

Pelicans vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

The Grizzlies are 9-4-1 against the spread as home favorites, they are 7-12-1 against the spread in all other games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Grizzlies.

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