Pelicans vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions: Fading Grizz Big's Sniping

After a leaguewide day off for Thanksgiving, all but two NBA teams are in action on Friday, November 25. The pick of the litter of those 14 games might be the showdown between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Memphis Grizzlies. 

Ja Morant and Zion Williamson are former AAU teammates and were taken back-to-back in the 2019 NBA draft, now they’re the head of the snake for their respective teams that will likely be rivals in the Western Conference for years to come. 

Our NBA picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. Grizzlies highlight the shooting struggles of the recently returned Jaren Jackson Jr.

Pelicans vs Grizzlies best odds

Pelicans vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

Due to injuries, he’s something of a forgotten player at times, but I firmly believe that Jaren Jackson Jr. is critical to this Memphis Grizzlies team’s success. Jackson is an outstanding talent, with ball skills and fluidity at 6-foot-11 that only a handful of human beings on earth can match. He’s also fulfilled his promise as a defensive anchor, and the Grizzlies’ floundering defense this year is largely due to his absence.

But the swing skill for Jaren, now and always, will be whether or not he can truly be a plus shooter at the five. He came into the NBA with a splash, hitting eight 3s in his first-ever Summer League game, then during his sophomore season, he hit a career-high nine threes against the Milwaukee Bucks.

It wasn’t just that he was hitting them though, but how aggressively he was hunting for them. He would come off screens, take them off the dribble, and even shoot from a few feet behind the arc. Mastering that shot would make him, and the Grizzlies writ large, almost unstoppable on offense. 

But that feels a bit like a distant memory sitting where we are now. After hitting 39% in his second year, Jackson hasn’t cracked 32% from outside since and he’s yet to make more than 1.6 threes per game for an entire season.

Given that his most recent injury was a right foot fracture, it’s not surprising that he’s again struggled in the few games since his return, and is shooting 4-18 or 22.2%. Shooting is all about generating power in the legs and that’s something that Jaren is going to have to build up over the course of the year.

I still believe that Jaren will get there as a shooter, but his frequent injury issues through his career to date sap his rhythm, and until he can play an entire healthy season, we may not see what he’s really made of as a shooter. For now, getting plus money to short Jackson here is great value.

My best bet: Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 1.5 3-pointers made (+143)

Pelicans vs Grizzlies spread analysis

With Memphis getting the home team bump, Pelicans at +1 is basically a pick ‘em. There’s a reason to be skeptical that this matchup is going to be quite that even. While both teams will be missing key shooters in CJ McCollum and Desmond Bane out for Friday’s game, I’d argue the Grizz will miss Bane far more than the Pels will miss CJ. 

The Grizzlies have lost four of five since losing Bane on November 11th, and the impact is being felt everywhere for the Memphis offense. Memphis is more than 13 points better on offense when Bane is on the court vs. off, and that’s due to both the punch that Bane provides himself but also the spacing he creates for Ja Morant and others to do their work. 

Ja’s bread and butter pick and roll with Steven Adams is not nearly as threatening without Bane one pass away. Morant has seen his rim finishing drop precipitously — all the way to 47% during the three games he’s played without Bane.

On the other hand, losing CJ might not be as damaging as it would sound on paper for the Pels. McCollum is having a down shooting year, his defense has always been problematic, and it reduces the friction of the still-in-flux hierarchy of shot attempts among the Pelicans’ best players.

The Grizzlies also have a miserable record against the spread this season at 6-12. They made moves this offseason with a view to the long-term improvement over chasing short-term wins, but I’m not sure they imagined that the losses of players like De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson would hurt quite this much. The Pels, meanwhile, are 5-1 against the spread in their last six.  

Pelicans vs Grizzlies Over/Under analysis

If you watch New Orleans on a random night, you might think they play defense well enough to win a championship, while on others that they’re fodder for the play-in. The Pels are an intriguing balance of young players and veterans, and so it’s not surprising that their performance can vary to such a degree. 

They’re still looking for consistency, but a positive sign is that they’ve redoubled their defensive efforts after poor performances, which has led to the Under going 6-1 in Pelicans’ last seven after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Zion Williamson is coming off probably his best offensive game of the season, but beating up on the San Antonio Spurs inside is not the same thing as facing off with Jackson and Adams. 

JJJ had a strong argument to win Defensive Player of the Year last season, and the Grizzlies have already made massive improvements on that end in his three games back. They’ve allowed 12.7 points fewer per 100 when JJJ is on the court in his limited minutes so far.

They’ve also been quite a bit worse on offense because, as mentioned, Jackson is still looking to recover his shooting touch. The Pels also shoot among the fewest threes of any team in the NBA, which should fall even further with CJ out Friday.  All of that has me leaning toward the Under.

Pelicans vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Grizzlies.

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