The Toronto Raptors emerge from the All-Star break in an interesting spot. They sit in 10th in the Eastern Conference, but clearly have a higher spot in mind after not only not blowing up their roster at the trade deadline, but acquiring Jakob Poeltl to sure up their weakest position.
They open the unofficial second half of the season with a date against another play-in team, the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans’ season started strong, but injuries to Zion Williamson and Branon Ingram have caused a tumble down the Western Conference standings.
Zion is still out, meaning the Raptors are favorites in this matchup, but are the Raps reliable as home chalk? I break down this matchup and bring you my best NBA picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. Raptors on Thursday, February 23.
Pelicans vs Raptors best odds
Pelicans vs Raptors picks and predictions
The Raptors get a nice boost coming out of the All-Star break with the return of O.G. Anunoby. The Raps’ wing is the team’s most reliable defender, and gives them another long-range shooting option.
While that’s a good thing for both their defense and depth, it doesn’t change the fact that the Raptors just haven’t lived up to expectations when it comes to their play at the defensive end of the floor.
Most people expected the Raptors to be one of the best defensive units in basketball this season, but outside of causing a lot of turnovers, that hasn’t been the case. Toronto ranks 17th in defensive rating, 27th in opponent field goals, and 28th in opponent field goal percentage (FG%).
While the Pelicans are still without Zion Williamson, they are starting to take flight once again with the return of Brandon Ingram. The small forward has played five of the team's last six games, averaging nearly 30 points per contest, and he’s definitely opening things up for his teammates.
New Orleans ranks seventh in FG% over the last six games, averaging a respectable 115.8 ppg. Guys like Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Trey Murphy III could have nice shooting nights.
Meanwhile, much has been made of the Pelicans' struggles on the road this season, and that means they should have their hands full with an improving Raptors’ offense.
The Raptors are seeing the early returns of Jakob Poeltl. They are running more pick-and-rolls than ever, and he is creating better spacing. The team is averaging 119.3 ppg since trading for Poeltl, and that should continue tonight.
The Pels rank 20th in opponent ppg (116.9), and 18th in opponent FG% in road games this season.
This total of 225.5 feels a little too low for this matchup. Ride the Over in the Raps’ return to the court.
My best bet: Over 225.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
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Pelicans vs Raptors spread analysis
When it comes to the spread, the Raptors opened this matchup as 4.5-point home favorites and they have seen the early money, moving the line to Toronto -6.
It makes sense. Not only are the Pelicans still missing Zion, but their struggles on the road are also well-documented. New Orleans is just 10-19 SU and 11-18 ATS away from home this season.
With the return of Anunoby, the Raptors are the healthiest they have been arguably all season long. Hopefully, that helps the Raptors play a full 48 minutes, as they’ve had their issues in the fourth quarter lately.
We'll have to take a wait-and-see attitude towards the Raps as favorites until they can put some consistent results together. When Toronto is favored between five and 9.5 points this season, they are just 5-9 ATS.
Pelicans vs Raptors Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 226 and hasn’t seen much movement since hitting the board. As I noted, this number feels too low.
The Raps have gone Over in all three games since acquiring Poeltl, seeing an average combined point total of 237 in those games. The Pelicans have allowed at least 110 points in 10 of their last 12 road games.
As noted, the Raps' defense is overrated, and the Pels can take advantage. But Toronto's offense is probably underrated, especially since the trade deadline, and the Pels struggle on the road. They could have a difficult time bottling up Pascal Siakam, who's off to a sizzling start in February (27 ppg).
All signs point to the Over.
Pelicans vs Raptors betting trend to know
The Over is 18-11 when the Pelicans play on the road this season, and 6-2 in the Raptors' last eight games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Raptors.
Pelicans vs Raptors game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, February 23, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, Bally Sports New Orleans |
Pelicans vs Raptors key injuries
