Pelicans vs Suns Picks and Predictions: Booker's Hot Streak Continues

The battered and bruised New Orleans Pelicans pulled off a gutsy win against the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday without the services of their two best players. They’ll have to make lightning strike twice when they head to play Devin Booker and the Phoenix Suns tonight.

Booker has been on a tear to begin the season and will look to take advantage of the Pels’ numerous absences.

With New Orleans missing so many key rotation players, our NBA betting picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. Suns are targeting the NBA player props market and backing Book to continue his recent molten-hot shooting streak.

Pelicans vs Suns best odds

Pelicans vs Suns picks and predictions

It would be basically impossible to overstate just how good Devin Booker has been to start this season. In four games, he’s averaging 32.5 points per game on a 60.2 effective field goal percentage. He’s shooting 48% from three on over six attempts and getting to the line more than eight times per contest.

Booker built his game as a midrange assassin, but now he’s become a truly unstoppable three-level scorer. He mixes in shiftiness and flawless footwork with aggression and a willingness to launch from outside that was foreign to him just two seasons ago. 

His development as a passer means he’s also no longer as vulnerable to double teams and opposing defenses are more hesitant to put two on the ball against him. He’s 86th percentile for assist percentage among wings this season, and he’s finished in the 95th percentile in each of the last two seasons.

And he isn’t doing this against scrubs. The Suns’ first four games were against the Dallas Mavericks, Portland Trail Blazers, Los Angeles Clippers, and Golden State Warriors. All of whom have better defensive matchups for Booker than the Pels have available. 

Availability is the key word, as Brandon Ingram is not traveling with the team after entering concussion protocol. He’s set to miss at least the next few games and this matchup with Booker. Herb Jones officially remains questionable, but I doubt the Pelicans risk rushing him back after he hyperextended his knee against the Utah Jazz on Sunday. Should Jones return, he’ll likely be on a short leash.

Ingram and Jones’ likely absence means that NOLA gets noticeably smaller on the perimeter. It’ll opt for some combination of CJ McCollum, Devonte’ Graham, and Jose Alvarado to hang with Booker, a sharp downgrade in sheer wingspan from the combination of Ingram and Jones. 

Alvarado is a pest, but at just 6-feet tall he’s much better suited to guarding the similarly diminutive Chris Paul. Booker is a legit 6-foot-5. That means he should be free to abuse the defensively challenged pairing of McCollum and Graham in isolation for most of the evening, or shoot right over Alvarado if it comes to that. 

The Pelicans’ defense has managed to stay afloat by denying the rim at all costs. But that shouldn’t bother Booker much, as all things being equal, he’d rather beat a team with a jumper anyway. Conversely the Pels have allowed the most threes of any team in the NBA this season per Cleaning the Glass. 

The shots are going to be there for Book all night.

My best bet: Devin Booker Over 28.5 points (-113)

Pelicans vs Suns spread analysis

This is the first matchup between the Pelicans and the Suns since their spirited six-game playoff series in 2022. Most books have this as a -6.0 advantage for Phoenix, which seems fair given the Pelicans' injury concerns.

So far New Orleans has been exactly as advertised. It has a 120.7 offensive rating, good enough for second in the league, while playing about average defense. Getting average defense from a starting lineup that features CJ McCollum and Zion Williamson should be the starting point for any early "Willie Green for Coach of the Year" chatter. 

With the amount of offensive creation on the Pelicans, this was always going to be their path to relevance. Early injuries are testing their depth but luckily, it’s among the best in the NBA. Williamson and Ingram are their two top-scoring talents and offensive initiators, but CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas both have plenty of experience as high-volume creators in their own right.

But is that enough to keep things close against an offense built around Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton and a bunch of plus shooters? I have my doubts.

Pelicans vs Suns Over/Under analysis

225.5 seems an optimistic total for this game. While the shorthanded Pelicans played admirably against the Mavs with Ingram and Zion out, the Phoenix defense is another beast entirely.

For a team that won a league-best 64 games last season, it sure didn’t seem like the Suns had a lot of believers around the league coming into the season. Some of that is natural after last year’s playoff debacle against the Mavericks, but they also faced questions concerning Chris Paul’s decline, Jae Crowder’s absence, and the handling of Deandre Ayton’s extension.

But when all is said and done, this team remains elite because they have great continuity and chemistry on the defensive side of the ball. They give great effort and their pieces add up to more than the sum of their parts.

Through three games, the Suns have a 105.7 defensive rating — third best in the NBA — and right on track with their third-best defense from last season. Mikal Bridges continues to make life hell on opposing wings and guards and should give McCollum all he can handle.

If there are questions for Phoenix, they should come on the offensive end. Booker has been awesome to start the season and has seemingly put a permanent end to any questions about who Phoenix’s best player actually is.

However, "CP3" has looked every bit his 37 years so far, and the king of clutch time basketball is now not even guaranteed to finish every game. The Suns already played a dangerous game in terms of shot diet with the worst expected field goal percentage in the league last season and Paul’s decline makes that a dicier proposition. 

Even with Herb Jones out, I’d lean Under at this number.

Pelicans vs Suns betting trend to know

Pelicans are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Suns.

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