A few short weeks ago, the New Orleans Pelicans looked like they might be able to secure homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. At the time, the Phoenix Suns were in serious danger of falling into the deep recesses of the play-in tournament.
However, everything has flipped since then, with the Pelicans' fortunes waning as the Suns rise from the ashes like their city's namesake.
With just one game separating them in the standings, their matchup today on Sunday, April 7 is crucial to both teams who want to improve the NBA odds of securing a Top-6 seed and an automatic playoff berth.
My NBA picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. Suns dive deep into why exactly New Orleans can’t slow down Devin Booker.
Pelicans vs Suns predictions
My best bet: Devin Booker Over 26.5 points (-110 at SportsInteraction)
When Devin Booker scored 52 points against the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday night, it made three games in a row where Booker had scored 50+ points against the same opponent. That’s something that the NBA hasn’t seen since Wilt Chamberlain.
It’s a jarring statistic. Ostensibly, the Pelicans are one of the NBA’s better defenses. Per Cleaning the Glass, they rank seventh in defensive rating on the season, but Booker seems to have their number.
The first issue is that the Pelicans have no natural matchup for Booker.
Jose Alvarado (who remains questionable with an oblique injury) is too small to bother Booker’s jump shot. Trey Murphy III has defensive tools but gets eaten alive in isolation as he can’t keep up with Booker’s footwork.
The Pels even tried sticking Zion Williamson on Booker for stretches. Zion has made strides on that end but has a long way to go before that’s a realistic solution.
Herb Jones is in theory one of the better wing defenders in the NBA. He’s not as quick as some of New Orleans’ other options, and Booker made short work of him for the most part too. He’s the Pels' best option, but he’s also the only player they want guarding Kevin Durant.
Durant’s presence is the other big piece. His size, shooting ability, and on-ball craft force the Pels to use their longer defenders to guard him rather than Booker. Perhaps over a full game, Jones could slow down Booker better than he’s shown, but he won’t get the chance.
Then on the backline, the Pels don’t have bigs strong in the pick-and-roll or comfortable guarding in space. When Book beats his first guy, he’s getting to the rim before Jonas Valanciunas can remotely contest him.
The Pelicans mostly want to play a conventional drop defense. For most opponents, forcing them into that in-between space below the arc but away from the rim is a win for the defense, but Booker is a midrange assassin.
In addition to going 8-16 from three on Monday, he hit all five of his jump shots in the midrange, because the Pels mostly let him get all the way to the elbows without making him uncomfortable.
Normally I’d be hesitant to buy on a player who just embarrassed an opponent as thoroughly as Booker just did. The opposing team is bound to be more locked in after all, but Booker has done this three straight times and the Pels have tried every coverage and defensive option they have already.
While I’m not banking on a fourth straight 50-piece, I love the value of Booker hitting his season average against an opponent that's shown they have no hope of guarding him.
Pelicans vs Suns same-game parlay
Devin Booker Over 26.5 points
Devin Book Over 6.5 assists
Suns -6
Booker didn’t just beat the Pels by scoring. They did their best to try and force the ball from his hands as well, and so he beat them with the pass.
The problem with blitzing Booker is that he's become so good at handling that kind of pressure. When Booker makes a pass, the recipient is typically a good shooter, or he’s hitting Jusuf Nurkic in stride to the rim because he’s already engaged the big.
He's averaging 7.6 assists over his last 10 games and has had 8+ in four of his last five.
With Booker leading the way, I also like the Suns' chances at covering. The Pels have been a mess recently, with a -6.5 spread differential over the past two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass.
The Suns, meanwhile, are going through the most difficult part of their schedule and have raised their game in response. The Suns have recent victories over the Timberwolves, Cavaliers, Nuggets, as well as these very same Pelicans. They’re hitting their stride while New Orleans is faltering.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pelicans vs Suns odds and trends
Pelicans vs Suns live odds
Pelicans vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +6.5 | Phoenix -6.5
- Moneyline: New Orleans +190 | Phoenix -225
- Over/Under: Over 222 | Under 222
Pelicans vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- Phoenix opened as 5.5-point favorites for Sunday’s tilt and while early action on the home team has seen that bump up to -6.5, there are still some oddsmakers offering that original line.
- The Suns are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 while the Pelicans are just 3-7.
- Sunday’s total opened at 223.5, but it’s been slowly bet down to between 221.5 and 222.5 at most sportsbooks.
- The Under is 21-15-1 in Pelicans road games this season.
Pelicans vs Suns trend
The Suns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Suns.
Pelicans vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Sunday, April 7, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Arizona's Family Sports, Bounce TV |
Not intended for use in MA.
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