Pelicans vs Thunder Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Holmgren Has His Way on Defense

With the New Orleans Pelicans heading to Paycom Center coming off their first loss of the season, they’ll have a tough test against the 3-1 Oklahoma City Thunder, who the NBA odds have as 3.5-point home favorites.

An interesting storyline in this one is how the two big men who were selected with Top-2 picks by their respective franchises look after both dealing with injuries last year.

Will Zion Williamson be able to handle the versatile game of Chet Holmgren and will the former Gonzaga star be able to deal with the power of the two-time All-Star?

Find out where my best bets lie in our free NBA picks for Pelicans vs. Thunder on Wednesday, November 1.

Pelicans vs Thunder odds

Pelicans vs Thunder predictions

After going from the No. 1 recruit in the 2021 class to All-American for the Zags, Chet Holmgren was making the transition to the NBA look easy when the No. 2 pick was thriving in Summer League. Then that dreaded Lisfranc injury took his entire rookie season away.

Through four games this year, the 21-year-old appears to be healthy and quickly adjusting to the speed and size of the NBA, despite needing to get fatter, according to Nikola Jokic.

The 7-foot 195-pound Holmgren is playing 26.5 minutes per game and averaging 15 points, 6.3 rebounds, and two assists while connecting on 62.5% of his threes and taking four per game. Not too shabby for a guy who hadn’t played in a year. 

While his 20.5 PAR line is intriguing (-115), it’s the steals + blocks line that jumps out the most against the New Orleans Pelicans. Finishing with three steals and blocks seems plausible for the guy who broke the Summer League blocks record with six in a game last year.

So far this season, that length has created all kinds of problems for opposing teams with Holmgren coming off a 4-block, 2-steal performance against the Pistons after blocking seven shots against the Cavaliers earlier this season.

Holmgren even thought he should have had more and took to X to voice his displeasure about finishing with just seven in the box score.

“NBA, please go watch the tape and give me the correct (number) of blocks,” posted on X. ”I (don’t care) about stats, but I worked hard (as f***) for those. Good (win), Thunder up lol."

The Thunder power forward is averaging 2.8 blocks and one steal per game so far this season and has a matchup against New Orleans that should allow him to add to his totals.

Last season, the Pelicans were the 15th-most blocked team in the NBA at 4.7 per game and this season they’ve jumped up to the 13th most blocked team at 5.7 per game. Against the Grizzlies, reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. blocked the Pels five times, and against the Warriors, rookie Trayce Jackson-Davis had four blocks.

While Holmgren will be in position to add to his block totals, he’ll be in an even better spot for steals. New Orleans allowed the 15th-most steals in the NBA last season (7.3) and is at a similar pace this year allowing seven per game.

The Pelicans have been prone to turnovers the last two seasons, finishing with the 10th most last season, and having the 12th most this season.

My best bet: Chet Holmgren Over 2.5 steals + blocks (-110 at bet365)

Pelicans vs Thunder same-game parlay

Chet Holmgren Over 2.5 blocks + steals

Holmgren Over 13.5 points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 assists

+650 at bet365

There’s value to be had with Holmgren as he continues to get his feet wet in the NBA. While banking on him to put up big numbers can be risky given the Thunder limiting his minutes early this season, he’s shown an ability to score despite the small sample size.

Holmgren has scored at least 14 points in three of four games this season, only falling short in the season opener. What he’s been doing behind the arc has been the most impressive aspect of his game and should make getting to 14 points easier.

He’s shot at least three 3-pointers in all four games this season and is coming off a four 3-pointer night against the Pistons.

When Holmgren is scoring, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been juicing up his assist numbers. In four games with the big man, SGA is averaging 6.3 assists per game and has topped 5.5 in two of four games.

Last season, the Kentucky alum averaged exactly 5.5 assists per game after averaging 5.9 in back-to-back seasons with the Thunder from 2020-21. He topped 5.5 assists in 36 of 68 games last year (53%).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pelicans vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis

The Thunder opened as 3.5-point favorites and the line hasn’t budged for a team that’s 3-1 against the spread this season. The lone time Oklahoma City hasn’t covered was as 3.5-point underdogs to the defending champion Nuggets.

New Orleans has also been a trustworthy team ATS this season at 2-1. They failed to cover as 3-point favorites against the Warriors.

The total opened at 225.5 at most books and has only shifted a half-point if at all. The Thunder are 2-2 to the Over and have hit it both times it’s been below 225 this season.

The Pels have struggled to hit the Over. They’re 1-2 O/U and hit it the only time their total was below 221.

Pelicans vs Thunder betting trend to know

The Thunder have hit the team total Over in 29 of their last 38 games at home (+18.55 units / 42% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Thunder.

Pelicans vs Thunder game info

Pelicans vs Thunder latest injuries

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