Pelicans vs Trail Blazers Picks and Predictions: Trey Tops His Scoring Total

Four games ago, the New Orleans Pelicans were on the outside looking in at the Western Conference postseason picture, but four straight victories have vaulted New Orleans into eighth place in the crowded West and has NOLA just one game back of the No. 6 seed.

The Pelicans bring that winning streak to the West Coast where they visit the Portland Trail Blazers, who are on a different trajectory in the final stretch of the season. Portland has dropped eight of its last nine outings and is a sizable underdog at home tonight with many key players potentially sidelined.

I run down the spread and Over/Under total for this Monday matchup and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Pelicans at Trail Blazers on March 27.

Pelicans vs Trail Blazers best odds

Pelicans vs Trail Blazers picks and predictions

The New Orleans Pelicans are building momentum as the season comes to a close and considering this growing spread and the makeup of this matchup, the Pelicans will play with plenty of momentum tonight and string together significant scoring runs.

New Orleans is generating easy offense from great defense during their four-game streak, forcing 16.5 turnovers per tilt in that span which has bubbled up into almost 21 average points off turnovers. The Pelicans put the pressure on the Clippers this past weekend, creating 19 turnovers and scoring 28 points off those miscues.

Today’s team total is calling for 118.5 points from the Pels, which is an uptick from their average efforts this month. And one of the biggest reasons why NOLA’s totals are climbing and a big part of that defense-to-offense drive is 6-foot-8 forward Trey Murphy III.

Murphy has been a monster in March, upping his points production to 19 per game after averaging less than 13 in the first five months of the schedule. He’s a very efficient scorer who’s knocking down more than half his looks this month and recently torched the Portland Trail Blazers for a career-high 41 points on March 12.

Murphy can hurt you from all aspects of the offense, including beyond the arc where he’s shooting better than 47% for an average of 4.3 makes over his last dozen appearances. But he’s also fantastic at creating turnovers, with 1.5 steals per game this month, and finishing those fastbreaks at the rim. He leads NOLA in points off turnovers and fastbreak buckets the past 12 games and collected nine of his 41 points from those aspects against the Blazers earlier this month.

Murphy’s point prop for tonight is sitting at 15.5 (Over -102) which is pretty much right where bookies have parked this prop the past 10 games, despite the Virginia product blowing past those expectations in seven of those outings. Given his uptick in offense in March, I have Murphy pegged for at least 17.5 points against Portland tonight.

With the paper-thin Trail Blazers potentially digging deep into their reserves on the second night of back-to-back games, and turnover troubles leading to more than 19 points during this current skid, Murphy’s defense-to-offense chops will be the motor that keeps NOLA’s momentum moving.

My best bet: Trey Murphy III Over 15.5 points (-102)

Pelicans vs Trail Blazers spread analysis

Portland fell to Oklahoma City yesterday, losing 118-112 but covering as a hefty 10.5-point home underdog with multiple starters and key rotation members missing.

Books opened this second of back-to-back games with the Blazers as similar pups, getting 8.5 points from oddsmakers which quickly ballooned to +11 by Monday morning.

Portland could again be without star Damian Lillard as well as Jerami Grant, Jusuf Nurkic, Anfernee Simons, Trendon Watford, and Justise Winslow. That group contains the team’s top four scorers and six of their top eight contributors on offense.

Portland’s skeleton crew held its own against OKC last night but faded in the fourth quarter with just 18 points. That group also coughed the ball over 18 times and allowed 13 offensive rebounds, leading to 21 second-chance points from the Thunder.

New Orleans is a much stiffer test on defense tonight. The Pelicans enter this game with the third-ranked defensive rating this month (110.3) and have really tightened the bolts during this four-game run (100.5), holding foes to an average of 99.3 points on 43% shooting. That’s led to a 4-0 run against the spread as well.

The Pelicans’ pressure is generating 16.5 turnovers per game in those four outings, which have transformed into 20.8 average points off turnovers. NOLA is putting up 120.5 points per outing during this streak, shooting almost 51% from the field. The Pelicans most recently hung 131 points on the Clippers, picking up 28 points off 19 forced turnovers.

Pelicans vs Trail Blazers Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under hit the board as high as 230.5 points but has since sunk to as low as 226.5 with those question marks for the Blazers.

New Orleans has been one of the best Under bets in the NBA for most of the season and was on a red-hot Under run since the All-Star break, going 3-11 Over/Under before topping the total against the Clippers on Saturday.

That 131-point performance was New Orleans’ biggest scoring output since Feb. 5 and just the third time this month the Pels played Over the total. One of those three rare Over results came against this Portland team on March 12, with NOLA winning 127-110 and going beyond the closing number of 221 points. The Blazers were also missing Lillard for that last meeting.

Even at full strength, the Trail Blazers are a bad defense. Since the All-Star break, Portland has poured out 120.5 points per contest – fifth most in those 16 games – and lugs the 27th-ranked defensive rating into tonight’s game.

The Trail Blazers haven’t been able to counter that defensive ineptitude with offense during this recent funk and losing Lillard for the past two games and potential the rest of the season isn’t helping. Portland has put forth an average of fewer than 109 points per game in the previous nine outings.

The dreadful defense has been bad enough to keep the Overs flowing for total bettors in this span, with the Blazers going 6-3 O/U since March 8. On the season, Portland is 36-36-2 O/U with a 21-14-2 O/U count inside the Moda Center.

Monday is the fourth matchup between these teams, with the Pelicans and Trail Blazers going 1-2 O/U in the three previous encounters. That said, the Portland lineup could be very different than those seen in past games.

Pelicans vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know

The Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers.

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