Pistons vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Herro Carves Up Detroit D

The Miami Heat and the Detroit Pistons will both try to get back in the win column on Tuesday night when the Eastern Conference teams face off at FTX Arena. 

Detroit has lost four of five games to drop to 6-19, good for 14th place in the Eastern Conference. Miami remains in the hunt for a playoff spot, as its 11-13 record has it slotted into the ninth seed in the East at the moment. 

The Pistons have struggled on defense, and Miami has a variety of weapons that could take advantage of that weakness. We’ll break down what that means for tonight’s game in our NBA picks and predictions for Pistons vs. Heat.

Pistons vs Heat best odds

Pistons vs Heat picks and predictions

So far this season, the Detroit Pistons have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Sure, Detroit struggles to score points as well, averaging just 110.1 per game. But it’s been on the other end of the court that the Pistons are losing games.

Detroit allows opponents to put up 118.2 points per game, ranking the Pistons 29th in overall defense. Other teams shoot 48.7% against Detroit (28th in the NBA), and the Pistons are second-worst in defensive efficiency this year.

This can be seen in Detroit’s recent struggles. Everyone is scoring against the Pistons, with the New York Knicks putting up 140 points against Detroit last Tuesday. The last time the Pistons held an opposing team to under 100 points came on November 17 in a 96-91 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, one of the NBA’s worst offensive teams.

The Miami Heat haven’t been particularly efficient on offense themselves. They also like to play at a slower pace than most of the league, which tends to keep their games a bit slower and lower scoring. Yet Miami still manages to win games on the offensive end in two ways: its excellent free throw shooting and its three-headed monster of capable scorers who can each take over a game.

Jimmy Butler has led the way for the Heat this year, scoring 21 points per game. However, Bam Adebayo (20.7 ppg) and Tyler Herro (19.1 ppg) are right behind, and on various nights, different combinations of those three players will handle the scoring. 

While Butler and Herro have both missed significant time this year, the Heat should have all three of their best weapons in the lineup tonight. That will put a lot of pressure on a defensively-challenged Pistons team. Detroit will particularly struggle in perimeter defense, as Cade Cunningham remains out with the shin injury he picked up last week.

That has me looking at Herro as the man of the hour in tonight’s game. The Heat point guard gets much of his scoring from the outside, averaging 7.4 attempts per game from behind the arc. While all three of Miami’s stars should find success, Herro stands to benefit most of all from the open looks that Butler and Adebayo will create tonight.

My pick tonight is to take the Over on Herro’s points prop. Nearly every book has his number at 20.5, which is right around his season average. Considering the matchup, he should be able to exceed that number, and we can get nearly even money on Herro to do so.

My best bet: Tyler Herro Over 20.5 points (-102)

Pistons vs Heat spread analysis

Miami opened tonight’s contest as an 8.5-point favorite. There hasn’t been much movement, and at most sites, you can still find Heat -8.5 as the main line.

The Heat have struggled to beat the spread this year, going just 8-15-1 ATS with a 3-8-1 ATS mark at home. Detroit has been just fair for bettors, going 12-11-2 ATS so far on the season.

The biggest problem with betting on Miami tonight will be the fact that it doesn’t tend to score a ton of points as a team. That means it also rarely blows teams out. Only two of the last 11 Heat games have been decided by double digits, and both of those were losses for Miami.

It’s worth noting that the Heat are coming off a back-to-back as well, having lost to the Memphis Grizzlies 101-93 on Monday night. This is a factor that can be overrated, but it is another small negative for Miami, especially if we’re looking for them to blow out the Pistons.

As long as I can still get 8.5 points, I’m inclined to back Detroit on the spread tonight. I definitely think this is a game Miami should win, but it’s a bit much to ask the Heat to dominate the game when we haven’t seen them capable of doing that this year.

Pistons vs Heat Over/Under analysis

While the total on this game opened at 222, the Over/Under has dropped to around 220.5 as of noon on Tuesday, with some books going down to a flat 220.

The Pistons do tend to play well above this number, averaging about a 229 total in their games so far this season. However, slower-paced teams have been able to bring these totals down. The Phoenix Suns and Cleveland Cavaliers have both recently beaten Detroit while scoring under 110 points, and as I noted earlier, the Clippers did so in a 96-91 win earlier this season.

Miami profiles very similarly to these teams, ranking 26th in the NBA in terms of pace. That has me pegging this game to be lower scoring, even with the struggles of the Detroit defense. The Heat play lower-scoring games more often than not, coming in under a total of 220 in eight of their last 10 games. 

All of these signs point towards the Under and explain why bettors have been bringing this total down today. However, I’m reluctant to bet on this game, as the total is just too low to feel comfortable based on the Pistons' defensive woes.

I definitely think the Under is the better call, but I’m staying away from this total.

Pistons vs Heat betting trend to know

The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Heat. Find more NBA betting trends for Pistons vs. Heat.

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