With only a quarter of the NBA season remaining, studying the standings suddenly has some pertinence. It is clear the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Oklahoma City Thunder should coast to the respective No. 1 seeds in the Eastern and Western Conferences.
The most intriguing pieces of the playoff picture will be the Play-In Tournament participants, and not only because they will play the first do-or-die games of the NBA postseason.
If nothing else, the Western 7-seed will avoid the Thunder until the Conference Finals. And at least six of the seven teams between No. 5 and No. 11 in the West believe they could make a run to the Conference Finals.
When looking at the final quarter of the NBA odds, what teams could climb into the Play-In? What ones could fall out?
NBA Play-In predictions
Phoenix Suns to make the Play-In: (+220 at DraftKings)
While the Phoenix Suns are on pace to be the worst against the spread team in the NBA since at least 2018, they are still just three games out of the final Play-In spot in the West. Three games may seem like a lot, but Phoenix faces the next team up, the Sacramento Kings twice this season, including in the year's final game.
58 games into the season, the Suns are still on pace to go 28-53-1 against the spread this season.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) February 27, 2025
So, ya know, on pace to be the worst ATS team in the NBA since sports betting became regulated in the U.S.
Note: The 76ers are on pace to go 30-52 ATS. https://t.co/8Iw1rFl0pu
The first of those meetings, in Arizona on March 14, will feature the Kings on the second night of a back-to-back. So already, to a decently justifiable extent, we can consider the Suns to be just two games out of the final Play-In spot in the West.
To be thorough, let’s also note that if Phoenix wins both those remaining games between the two, they will have split the season series 2-2. The next applicable tiebreaker would be division record, where the Suns will have a decisive edge.
The Suns warrant little faith. According to tankathon.com, facing the most difficult remaining schedule does not help that trust. However, the Kings face the next most difficult remaining schedule, so there should not be too much focus on Phoenix’s slate.
Betting on the Suns to slip into the Play-In is effectively betting on Phoenix to make the most of its two remaining games against Sacramento. Finding +220 odds on those two remaining games provides value.
Brooklyn Nets to make the Play-In: (+900 at DraftKings)
This looks like a big swing. Any bet at +900 looks like a big swing.
But the Brooklyn Nets are just 1.5 games out of the Play-In Tournament right now, with one game remaining against the Chicago Bulls, the current No. 10 seed. The winner of that game will have the tiebreaker between the two.
Look at recent trends. The Bulls have gone 5-16 since Jan. 12, never winning two games in a row in the stretch. The Nets have gone 7-4 since Jan. 29, showing a level of fight that fits with head coach Jordi Fernandez’s ethos.
One might argue Brooklyn should tank out of the playoffs, but the same could be said of Chicago, and only one of these teams actively moved off significant pieces at this year’s trade deadline. The Bulls’ front office may have sent a loud message to its rotation in early February.
From a scheduling perspective, Chicago has a tougher road ahead, but not by much.
This bet is largely based on the value. No one sitting just 1.5 games out of the Play-In should be priced at +900 right now, certainly not when the team in the No. 10 spot is so clearly floundering.
Do Not Bet on the Minnesota Timberwolves to make the Play-In: (-105 at DraftKings)
The only team with an easier remaining schedule than the Minnesota Timberwolves is the Toronto Raptors. Minnesota’s remaining opponents have a winning percentage of .438. The next lowest number among Western Conference Play-In contenders is Golden State’s at .493.
More pertinently, the two teams directly in front of the Timberwolves in their attempt to escape the Play-In are the two teams in Los Angeles, sitting at No. 4 and No. 5 in remaining schedule difficulty. The Los Angeles Lakers still have to face the Oklahoma City Thunder twice and the Boston Celtics once, for example.
The Los Angeles Clippers are closer to the Wolves, though, sitting just half a game ahead. They do not meet again, but Minnesota already has the tiebreaker between the two.
If the Timberwolves can reincorporate three injured starters — Donte DiVincenzo (turf toe, return imminent); Julius Randle (adductor strain, return nearing); and Rudy Gobert (back spasms, day-to-day) — then they should charge into the sixth spot in the West.
