Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: KAT Keeps Rolling From Range

Sunday’s NBA slate signals the start of the home stretch, with just seven days of regular-season action left on the schedule. And since the league takes a break on Monday, it has stacked Sunday’s board with a dozen games.

We make the most of a busy betting day in the NBA, picking through the matchups and motivations to give you our favorite free NBA player prop picks for April 3.

NBA player props for April 3

• Towns Over 1.5 made 3s (-136)
• Gordon Under 15.5 pts (-118)
• McCollum Over 22.5 pts (-112)

Picks made on 4/3/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props      

Hungry Like the Wolf

The Minnesota Timberwolves are trying to avoid getting sucked into the play-in tournament in the Western Conference, currently seeded seventh in the West and two games behind Denver, which is safe of the play-in at the No. 6 spot.

The Wolves wrap a road trip in Houston tonight, coming off a huge road win over the Nuggets on Friday. Behind the Rockets sits three final games at home. Minnesota has rolled over Houston in their two matchups this season, winning by margins of 18 points in each of those run-ins.

Karl-Anthony Towns led the way in both those victories, putting in efforts of 30 and 40 points while also shooting a collective 7-for-10 from 3-point range. Towns is one of the best shooting big men from beyond the arc (41.1%), as evidenced by his 4-for-7 effort from distance in the win at Denver.

The Rockets are running out the clock on another terrible season and enter Sunday on a three-game slide and with just five wins in 18 games since March 1. Houston has allowed an average of almost 118 points in those contests but has actually done a solid job protecting the arc, checking foes to less than 11 triples on 33% success from long range in that span.

That said, the recent schedule has featured the likes of Sacramento, San Antonio, Washington, and Memphis – all of which rank Bottom 10 in 3-pointers made. Enter Minnesota, which launches a league-high 41.3 shots from deep per outing, connecting on 14.7 of those per contest. Towns is responsible for five of those attempts and an average of two makes.

His recent production from deep has slimmed but to Towns’ defense, the Timberwolves have played some quality defensive opponents in that span. Oddsmakers aren’t predicting much pushback from the Rockets, who are 12.5-point home underdogs. We like KAT to let it fly in Houston tonight.

Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 made threes (-136)

Flash (in the pan) Gordon

The Denver Nuggets can not only improve their standing in the Western playoff picture but also put a nail in the coffin in the Los Angeles Lakers’ dwindling postseason hopes Sunday. The Nuggets are in L.A. and bracing for a “healthy” Lakers lineup featuring Anthony Davis and LeBron James.

Denver had a three-game winning streak snapped by Minnesota last time out, but it was of no fault to forward Aaron Gordon, who dropped in 24 points in the losing cause. Gordon has been playing his best basketball at the right time, averaging more than 18 points per game over Denver’s last eight outings.

Gordon’s offensive uptick is in part a result of some up-tempo teams on the other side of the court (as well as some soft defenses). The Nuggets have faced Minnesota (No. 1 in pace rating), Charlotte (No. 4), Phoenix (No. 9), and Oklahoma City (No. 11) in that stretch.

While the Lakers rank out No. 7 in tempo (100.28), they've slowed down considerably with Davis in the lineup in January and February (98.12) and are much stiffer on defense with AD protecting the paint. 

Tonight’s assignment is also a little different for Gordon. He won’t just be leaned on for offense but also will draw the task of slowing down a scorching LeBron, who has dropped 36 or more points in his last five outings. 

The last time these teams clashed, Gordon scored just 11 points and was whistled for four fouls, limiting his work to just 23 minutes but finished the game with a plus-9 rating despite James dropping 25 points. Tonight’s tilt will have a playoff-like feel to it, with Los Angeles in desperation. Defensive duties will eat into Aaron’s offensive efforts in L.A.

Pick: Aaron Gordon Under 15.5 points (-118)

Empty the Clip

The New Orleans Pelicans are pushing for the postseason via the play-in tournament, winning three in a row including two victories over the Lakers. New Orleans takes on the other L.A. team tonight, trailing the Clippers by 3.5 games for the No. 8 spot in the West.

The combo of Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum has been driving this late-season surge, with Ingram giving NOLA a nice inside-out punch since returning from a 10-game absence. The Clippers could contain Ingram and keep him off the glass tonight, getting some key members of the frontcourt back in action. That leaves McCollum to shoulder the load offensively for the Pelicans.

McCollum followed up a 24.8 scoring average in March with a 32-point eruption versus the Lakers on Friday, knocking down 12 of 23 shots – including 4-for-8 from deep. He wasn’t on New Orleans’ roster for the previous matchups with the Clippers (all NOLA wins by an average of 18.7 ppg) but should benefit from all the attention Ingram attracts.

Los Angeles was one of the top defenses in the NBA but has stumbled since the All-Star break, watching its defensive rating slide from 108.4 pre-break to 115.8 since the February hiatus. Things have gotten even worse over the last 10 games, with the Clips boasting a defensive rating of 121.1 and going just 3-7 in that stretch. Foes are shooting better than 49% in that span, with 39% success from 3-point range.

McCollum has the hot hand from outside the past two games and thrives inside foreign venues, knocking down 40% of his long range looks on the road. He’s gone Over 22.5 points (today’s point prop total) in six of his last seven outing and in 10 of his past 14 games.

Pick: C.J. McCollum Over 22.5 points (-112)

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