Best NBA Player Props Today: On Board With Markkanen

Prop bet #1: Markked man

Lauri Markkanen was long miscast as a center. His transformation into a true scoring star has, in part, been because he’s so much better as a forward who can occasionally play bigger at the five and smaller at the three. 

Markkanen’s greatest strength is that he takes nothing off the table. He can play up or down a spot, he can shoot, he can play on or off the ball, and he defends the rim. He’s a Swiss Army Knife type of player. But as Markkanen’s star has risen, his continued presence on the glass has become a bit underrated. 

Markkanen’s 18.7% defensive rebounding rate puts him in the 89th percentile among all forwards per Cleaning the Glass, while his offensive rebounding rate is 84th percentile.

The Utah Jazz are a sneaky big team because of Lauri’s ability to shift spots and their penchant for starting Lauri alongside a traditional four and five.

The New Orleans Pelicans are a solid defensive-rebounding team, but that’s almost entirely the work of Jonas Valanciunas. They suffer against big wings and forwards who really make an effort to mix it up on the glass like Markkanen. 

Zion Williamson is ostensibly going to be matched up with Markkanen, and for all his athletic gifts in both hops and strength, his effort on the boards is mixed at best. 

Herb Jones or Dyson Daniels might get their shot against the Finnish forward, but while Markkanen plays small forward at times, he is a legit 7-footer. He can dominate those guys on the boards because he’s much bigger than them, and they’ll have to worry about boxing out Walker Kessler, John Collins, or Kelly Olynyk as well.

Markkanen is averaging 8.9 boards over his last 10 games and has had nine or more in four straight, making these Lauri Markkanen odds my first and favorite play on Thursday's board.

Lauri Markkanen prop: Over 7.5 rebounds (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Muted Malcolm

For a bad team, the Portland Trail Blazers suddenly have a lot of mouths to feed. They have a lot of different offensive options, and with the return of Anfernee Simons, they’ve adopted a largely egalitarian approach. 

That means that Malcolm Brogdon, one of the steady veterans and a big contributor to what little success they’ve had is naturally going to take a bit of a backseat. His on-ball reps are declining as Simons takes the reigns as the team's clear top option, and that could slide even further on Thursday against the San Antonio Spurs.

This is also because Scoot Henderson has slowly started to come around nicely after very public early-season struggles and has begun to look like a rookie worthy of the No.2 overall pick. 

He’s seeing growing responsibilities as a playmaker, notching a career-high 11 assists last time the Blazers played, and it’s another reason why I believe these Malcolm Brogdon odds are too high.

Brogdon has only had seven or more assists once in the last nine games, and I think he’s going to be gradually marginalized in the Blazers' offense going forward. Getting this at plus money was an easy pick.

Malcolm Brogdon prop: Under 6.5 assists (+110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Caldwell-Nope

One of the things that makes the Denver Nuggets so good is role definition. They all know what they’re good at, what they’re responsible for, and what they’re absolutely not supposed to do. 

Players like Aaron Gordon, who played like first-option stars at previous stops, have slotted into roles that maximize their strengths inside the team concept. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is another example, a player who could have a larger role on another squad but who instead has stripped his game down to the essentials.

In KCP’s case, that means he doesn’t do much with the ball other than catch and shoot. His assist rate is below 10% just about every season, so when he uses a possession, it is almost always a shot. That doesn’t leave a lot of opportunities to turn the ball over.

Caldwell-Pope has always been a relatively low-turnover player, but he’s entrusted to do even less on the ball with the Nuggets than he was at previous stops. He’s here to defend and take threes, with the occasional drive and pull up into the midrange. 

Still, a bet like this is never going to feel entirely comfortable when even a momentary lapse can cause you to lose. But a prop like this is all about maximizing value and the trends, and his role bears out the strategy behind it.

Caldwell-Pope hasn’t recorded a single turnover in 10 of his last 13 games. To get significant plus money value on something that is 10-3 in his last 13 games is objectively good value, which is why these Kentavious Caldwell-Pope odds are one of my three favorite bets today.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope prop: Under .5 turnovers (+140 at bet365)