Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Mitchell Helps on the Glass in Gobert's Absence

It’s Super Bowl weekend, so let’s build that bankroll before the Big Game with some winners in the NBA player prop market. With seven games on the schedule tonight, there is plenty of NBA betting value to be found.

The Jarrett Allen All-Star game snub revenge tour continues in Indiana tonight when the Cavaliers visit the Pacers, and Donovan Mitchell has been doing it all for the Jazz with Rudy Gobert still on the sidelines.

Check out our NBA player prop picks for Friday, February 11, as we bank on some of the NBA's best to do their thing.

NBA player props for February 11    

• Jarrett Allen Over 26.5 points + rebounds (-125)
• John Collins Over 17.5 points (+100)
• Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 rebounds (+100)

Picks made on 2/11/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

All-Star performance

The Jarrett Allen All-Star Game Snub Revenge Tour continues tonight when the Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Indiana Pacers. The Cavs big man has been on a mission since not being selected for the NBA’s showcase of its best talent.

Allen is doing his best to show the NBA they made a mistake, averaging 19.7 points and 17.7 rebounds over his last three games. That includes putting up 15 points and grabbing 17 boards in a game against this same Pacers team, and that was before they traded away Domantas Sabonis.

Even with Sabonis, this Pacers defense has really struggled since giving up 158 points to the Hornets at the end of January. From that game to now, the Pacers rank 28th in defensive rating and are giving up an NBA-worst 123.5 points per game. 

Now, Tyrese Haliburton is a nice foundational piece for the Pacers to build around, but he won’t help their issues in the paint and on the glass. The Pacers rank 25th in opponent points in the paint and with Sabonis gone and Myles Turner still out, they’re down their Top 2 rebounders. 

Bet on another big game from Allen.

Pick: Jarrett Allen Over 26.5 points + rebounds (-125 at DraftKings)

Spurs get baptized 

The rebuild in San Antonio continues, as the Spurs used yesterday’s trade deadline to acquire more assets and free up cap space, but that doesn’t help them tonight when they visit the surging Atlanta Hawks.

The Hawks have won nine of their last 12 games thanks to an offense that ranks fifth in offensive rating over that span, to climb back into a play-in spot in the Eastern Conference. They’ll look to keep that momentum going against the Spurs team that will be a little shorthanded and was already struggling on defense.

The Spurs rank 21st in defensive rating, 24th in opponent field goal percentage, and are allowing 113.8 points per game over their last 10 games, but they really struggle in the interior. San Antonio allows the third-most points in the paint per game in the NBA which should create an opportunity tonight for Hawks forward John Collins.

Collins has found his rhythm, averaging 18.7 points over his last seven games while shooting a nice 56.3 percent from the field. He has also put up 19 or more points six times over that seven-game stretch, so seeing even money on the Over 17.5 for tonight’s matchup is too tempting to pass up.

Pick: John Collins Over 17.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)

Spida(board)man

The Utah Jazz didn’t make any significant moves at the trade deadline this season, other than the emotional farewell to Joe Ingles. So, they’ll finish out the season with what they have, and that isn’t a bad thing, particularly now that Donovan Mitchell is back. They’ll look for a victory tonight when they host the Orlando Magic.

The Jazz shooting guard has picked up right where he left off before an eight-game stint in concussion protocols, averaging 24.3 points and 6.7 assists in his first three games back. With Rudy Gobert also sidelined, Mitchell has picked up his game on the glass as well. 

Mitchell is averaging 6.7 rebounds in the last three games without Gobert, which includes grabbing 17 over the last two games and while the Magic have some good rebounders like Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba, as a team, they are sub-par on the boards. Orlando ranks 26th in the NBA in rebound rate and 24th in opponent rebounds per game.

With Gobert’s status still up in the air, bet on Mitchell to keep putting in extra work on the boards in this matchup, especially at this nice number and price.

Pick: Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 rebounds (+100 at FanDuel)

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