Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Klay Dishes Dimes on Valentine's Day

The NBA is front and center in the post-football world of wagering and what better day to show the Association some love than Valentine’s Day.

The February 14 slate features nine games and we battle through the Big Game hangover to present our best free NBA player prop picks for Monday. Pass the Tylenol and the roses.

NBA player props for February 14

• DeRozan Over 31.5 points (-115)
• Sabonis Over 35.5 points+rebounds+assists (-115)
• Thompson Over 2.5 assists (-150)

Picks made on 2/14/2022 at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

Ex Marks the Spot

Ah Valentine’s Day. A time to reflect on current and past loves. The San Antonio Spurs have an awkward run-in with one of their exes on February 14, rolling into the Windy City to face DeMar DeRozan and the Chicago Bulls. And he looks great.

DeRozan is not only an All-Star starter in his first year with the Bulls, but he’s been on fire in February, averaging 35 points a night on 55.7% shooting over the past seven games. DeRozan clashed with his former club a couple weeks back as well, hanging 32 points in a 13-for-22 shooting performance at the end of January.

San Antonio is in the midst of its annual “Rodeo Trip," playing the fourth of what will be eight straight road games that stretch until the end of the month. Those road-weary legs will have a tough time slowing down DeRozan in isolation, with San Antonio ranked 22nd in effective field goal percentage allowed in iso sets and 25th in points allowed per game to isolation offenses.

DeRozan is putting up "Jordanesque" numbers for the Bulls – blowing today’s points total out of the water in his last five games - and will have a little extra motivation to show up his former club on Valentine’s Day.

Pick: DeMar DeRozan Over 31.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

King Among Kings

Newly-acquired center Domantas Sabonis seems to be fitting in just fine with the Sacramento Kings, posting efforts of 22 points, 14 rebounds, and five assists versus Minnesota in his first game and a 16/11/7 stat line against Washington.

Sacramento makes stop No. 2 on its current three-game Eastern road trip at the Barclay’s Center tonight, facing whatever remains of the Brooklyn Nets. James Harden is gone, Kevin Durant is injured, and Kyrie Irving is banned from home games, leaving a roster thin on talent and heavy on miles. Sabonis will draw defensive checks from the likes of Blake Griffin, LaMarcus Aldridge, and — perhaps — Andre Drummond.

Sabonis was a triple-double threat before coming to the Kings, averaging almost 19 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists on the season. He’s versatile enough to draw those lumbering vets out of the paint and is a potent pick-and-roll piece alongside Sacto guard De’Aaron Fox, stacking up those assists thanks to inheriting his dad Arvydas' slick passing prowess.

Brooklyn struggles against pick-and-roll offenses, allowing the third-highest scoring frequency to those sets and an average of 26 points per game to pick-and-roll attacks. We like the latest member of the Kings to hold court and stuff the stat sheet tonight.

Pick: Domantas Sabonis Over 35.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at DraftKings)

Forgot about K.L.A.Y.

If you’re like most people who took in the halftime show Sunday night, you’ve been spitting hot fire with those West Coast throwbacks in your head all day. The NBA shows some “California Love” on Valentine’s Day with the Golden State Warriors visiting the Los Angeles Clippers in the late game.

Warriors sniper Klay Thompson is working his way back into All-Star form, coming off his biggest scoring effort since his long-awaited return from injury. Thompson dropped 33 points on the Lakers on Saturday, going 12 for 22 from the floor, including a 5-for-9 night from beyond the arc.

The Clippers won’t be as gracious on defense as their L.A. rivals, getting their heels above the 3-point arc and putting pressure on Thompson to either move the ball or put it on the floor. Los Angeles allows just 11 3-point makes per home game while holding visitors to 32% shooting from distance inside Crypto.com Arena (fourth lowest). 

But while Klay may not make it rain from outside, he can influence the offense in other ways. He failed to record a single assist in the win over the Lakers but is averaging almost three per game on the season and had assist totals of five and seven dimes already this month. The Warriors are the top team in assists per field goal, so while the Clips crackdown on Thompson from long range, he’ll find ways to get his teammates involved.

The Over 2.5 assists is a little pricy, sitting as low as -150 at DraftKings, but with L.A. playing tighter checks on the perimeter, it opens up room for backdoor cuts and slips of screens for an offense that moves without the basketball better than any in the league.

Pick: Klay Thompson Over 2.5 assists (-150 at DraftKings)

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