Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Magic Rookie Keeps Shining

It’s Groundhog Day, but the way we're rolling with NBA player props these days, here’s hoping for nothing to change and six more weeks of winning bets.

Today, we focus on Joel Embiid, who after a one-game absence, will look to continue his dominant run when the Philadelphia 76ers host Washington Wizards, while we look to find a way to fade the Indiana Pacers as their lost season continues.

Check out our NBA player prop picks for Wednesday, February 2, as we bank on some of the NBA's best to do their thing.

NBA player props for February 2

• Embiid Over 32.5 points (-115)
• Wagner Over 16.5 points (-105)
• Claxton Over 8.5 points (-125)

Picks made on 2/2/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

Big man on campus

After a one-game absence, the Joel Embiid show continues tonight when the Philadelphia 76ers host the Washington Wizards. Embiid’s recent run of dominance has been so great, he is starting to draw comparisons to Hakeem Olajuwon.

And that isn’t a stretch. Embiid is averaging 33.9 points per game while shooting 54.2% from the field while adding 10.6 rebounds and 4.5 assists over his last 20 games, leading the 76ers to a 15-5 record over that span, climbing to second place in the Eastern Conference.

The Sixers’ big man now gets an intriguing matchup against the Wizards. Washington is in a bit of a tailspin, having lost six in a row, falling to 12^th in the East. A big reason for that is a defense that has regressed after a hot start. The Wiz now rank 22^nd in the NBA when it comes to defensive rating and 23^rd in opponent points in the paint.

Now, sportsbooks have adjusted a bit to Embiid’s torrid scoring, but not enough. It’s hard to say no to the Over on Embiid’s points even at 32.5. It's a number he's gone Over five times in his last seven games and has put up at least 32 points 12 times in that 20-game stretch.

Fade Embiid at your own risk.

Pick: Joel Embiid Over 32.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Franz Ferdinand

The Indiana Pacers are applying to be our resident fade team for the remainder of the NBA season. While they are coming off a victory over the Los Angeles Clippers last time out, the way they are playing defense lately screams, “I give up!” And that could only get worse as the trade deadline nears.

The only team that is worse than the Pacers when it comes to defensive rating over the last 10 games is the lowly Sacramento Kings. Indiana's allowing an NBA-high 121.8 points per game over that sample, and tonight, it'll have to try and focus on the Orlando Magic.

But it sounds like the Pacers will once again be without Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, and Malcolm Brogdon, among others. That could mean plenty of scoring, even for an opponent like the basement-dwelling Magic.

While Orlando may only have 11 wins this season, it is a young and scrappy bunch, and is a respectable 8-8 ATS since the start of January. And one player who has stepped up is rookie Franz Wagner.

The Magic small forward is averaging 15.8 points on 46.7% shooting this season. But the rookie has picked up his game of late, putting up 20.2 points on 59.4% over his last five games. That includes shooting 43.8% from 3-point range over that span.

That makes Wagner’s point total of 16.5 stand out, a number he has eclipsed in each of his last five games. We’re betting he makes it 6-for-6.

Pick: Franz Wagner Over 16.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

Nic at Nite

The Sacramento Kings are the proud owners of the NBA’s longest losing streak, which is sitting at seven games. It's a little surprising that their opponent tonight, the Brooklyn Nets, are also riding a five-game losing streak, but the Kings shouldn’t get a break here.

While Kevin Durant remains out, the Nets should have both James Harden and Kyrie Irving available in this matchup. But it’s another Nets player with a sneaky good matchup that we like in this game, and that’s Nic Claxton. The Nets’ power forward is averaging 8.9 points per game this season and gets a points Over/Under of 8.5 in this one 

We get this number because Claxton missed seven straight games due to a hamstring injury and is still working his way back a bit, playing in three of Brooklyn’s last four games, totaling just 21 points. But in the 10 games prior to the injury, he was averaging 13.6 points per game, putting up double digits nine times over that stretch.

Now, he faces a Kings team that ranks next-to-last in the NBA in defensive rating and ranks dead last when it comes to opponent points in the paint. With still no KD and LaMarcus Aldridge, Claxton should see a few more minutes and feast on this crownless Kings defense.

Pick: Nic Claxton Over 8.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)

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