Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Fading Luka Doncic in San Fran

Sunday is a fun day in the NBA, with an eight-game slate on the board and plenty of NBA player props to pick from. 

Given the short turnaround, we’re going to pass on the afternoon action and focus on the night games as we dive into the prop markets for February 27.

Here are our free NBA player prop picks and predictions.

NBA player props for February 27

• Bridges Over 4.5 assists
• Morris Sr. Over 0.5 steals
• Doncic Under 29.5 points

Picks made on 2/27/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

I can see for Miles and Miles

The Charlotte Hornets are wrapping up a three-game home stand Sunday, welcoming the Detroit Pistons to the Spectrum Center. 

The Hornets’ win/loss record may not look improved, but the team is putting up more of a fight in its last three games, smashing Toronto by 32 points on Friday and losing the two games prior to that in overtime. 

At the middle of this mid-season push is forward Miles Bridges. He scored 28 and 29 points in the overtime losses to Minnesota and Miami and finished with just 11 points versus the Raptors, but still dished out seven assists in the blowout.

Bridges has stuffed the stat sheet this season, averaging almost 20 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists on the season. His scoring has dipped a bit in February, but his assist production has shot up, handing out 4.5 helpers per game – which is where his assist total sits for Sunday’s clash with the Pistons.

Detroit ranks 24th in assists allowed per game at 25.6 on the season and has seen its assists per field goal allowed metric spike in recent outings, jumping to 0.678 over the last three games – highest in the NBA in that span.

The Pistons gave up 31 assists to Boston on Saturday and now hit the road to Charlotte to play the second of back-to-back games. That leaves them a step slower against a Hornets offense that leads in the league in scoring (114 ppg) and sits tops in assists per field goals made (0.697) over the past three games.

Bridges has topped 4.5 assists in six of his 10 games this month while recording totals of seven assists in two of his last three games. 

Pick: Miles Bridges Over 4.5 assists (+114)

Deal on the steal

The Houston Rockets hand over a league-worst 16.9 turnovers per game, including 9.7 steals an outing. The Rockets play host to the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday, with the Clips surging as the second half of the schedule tips off thanks in large part to their defense.

Los Angeles has won two straight and four of its last five games, boasting an advanced defensive rating of 104.2 (second best) in that span. The Clippers have forced an average of 15.2 turnovers in those contests with 7.2 of those takeaways coming via steals. 

In fact, these teams met just before the All-Star break, with the Clippers crushing the Rockets 142-111. Houston coughed the ball up 19 times and L.A. finishes with 12 steals on the night.

The Over/Under steal markets is pretty shallow as of Sunday morning, with only three Clippers on the board – one of which is Marcus Morris Sr. 

Bet365 has his Over 0.5 steals (basically will he record a steal or not) for Morris juiced at -140 and while Morris isn’t the most sticky-handed player on the L.A. roster, he has recorded at least one steal in three straight games and in six of his nine contests this month.

That includes a solo steal in the Clippers’ blowout of Houston before the break.

With the Clips causing chaos on the defensive end, there will be plenty of mistakes made by the Rockets and plenty of chances for Morris to snag a solo steal and put this prop to bed.

Pick: Marcus Morris Sr. Over 0.5 steals (-140)

Don't get "Goosed" by the Mavericks

Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic goes from the frying pan into the fryer Sunday, coming off a tough night against Utah’s defense Friday and now facing the premier defensive club in the NBA, the Golden State Warriors.

Doncic scored 23 points and was checked to just 8-for-24 shooting against the Jazz, who threw Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert at the Mavs superstar guard.

Doncic, who was on fire before the All-Star break, will be the focal point of a Warriors team that tops the league in advanced defensive rating (104.5) and allows only 101.8 points per home game on the season.

Golden State is one of the better pick-and-roll defenses in the land and also checks hand-off sets to a scoring frequency of just 36.3% on the season: the two ways Dallas tries to utilize Doncic’s skill set to initiate the offense. The Warriors also have solid on-the-ball defenders in Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole when Doncic looks to isolate. 

The Dubs may not have Klay Thompson in the lineup tonight due to an illness, which will have Golden State pulling up its shorts on the defensive end and playing a more methodical pace when it does have the basketball.

Doncic, who is averaging 27.4 points per game, scored 26 points against the Warriors at home on January 5. He’s much more comfortable inside American Airlines Arena, with his scoring rate dipping from 29.3 at home to just 24.8 as a visitor while shooting 43.3% from the field and 32.7% from 3-point range (vs. 45.5% and 34.1% at home). 

His points total for Sunday is set at 29.5, which feels a tad ambitious considering the venue and the quality of the opponent. 

Pick: Luka Doncic Under 29.5 points (-110)

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