Best NBA Player Props Today: Dort Bounces Back Against the Raps

By George, I Think He’s Got It!

Los Angeles Clippers star forward Paul George is playing through a groin injury that has seen his recent minutes slimmed. 

Over the past five games, George has logged an average of only 26.3 minutes of floor time, compared to his season mark of 34.8 before that dip. His scoring average has trimmed to just Over 17 points in that span, down from 23.6 points per game. 

However, while PG played only 27 minutes in the win over the Detroit Pistons on Friday (scoring 18 points), Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue told reporters that George’s limited workload was more about the game being one-sided rather than a minutes restriction.

“He was actually going to play some more minutes tonight, but we didn’t need him down the stretch,” Lue told the media following the 136-125 win. “He said he felt good and now the biggest thing is just trying to get his rhythm back. But he said he felt good.”

Paul George’s odds surrounding his scoring prop for Sunday’s road trip to South Beach reflects those recent limitations. It's down to 18.5 points Over/Under and isn’t taking into account his improved health heading into this matchup with the Miami Heat.

Player projections for PG range from 18.8 to 23 points, with my number at 21.4, but I feel confident he’ll push the ceiling on this prop with his minutes returning to the norm.

Before suffering that groin injury, George was heating up in January with more than 27 points per game in the first nine games of the month. FYI: George’s milestone market has 25 points or more priced at +270. 

Paul George prop: Over 18.5 points (-109 at Caesars)

North of Dort

There’s some added motivation for a couple of the Oklahoma City Thunder’s standouts with the Toronto Raptors coming to town Sunday.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have two Canadian players on the roster, and while everyone will be looking at All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to put on a show against his hometown team, I'll be targeting Luguentz Dort's odds.

Dort has been playing through an ankle injury recently but was able to rest up in the wake of OKC’s blowout win over Charlotte on Friday. With the Thunder running away on the scoreboard, Dort played just 19 minutes but was 3-for-4 (2-for-3 from 3-point range) for eight points. 

His production over the past seven games has been hindered by that tender ankle — averaging only five points an outing — and that reflects in this shorter scoring prop. But given his light workload Friday and time to rest up, Dort will return to the form that saw him average 12.8 points in the 20 games prior to that slump.

Player projections for Dort range from 10.9 to as high as 15.4 points, with my number coming out to 12.7 points. However, with the way he can shoot the triple and given the current state of Toronto’s defense, I’m leaning toward that higher ceiling.

And while the “added motivation” factor against Canada’s team may be a bit flimsy in terms of traditional handicapping, Dort does bring the extra effort against Toronto. In his six career games versus the Raptors, he’s averaged 15.3 points and five rebounds — well beyond his career averages of 12.9 points and 3.9 rebounds.

Lu Dort prop: Over 11.5 points (-115 at bet365)

A Bridges Too Far

The Charlotte Hornets are mired in a nasty six-game slide and have just three wins on their record since the calendar flipped to 2024 (3-14 straight up).

Oddsmakers are calling for another loss Sunday, with the Hornets hovering around double-digit home underdogs to the Indiana Pacers.

The current makeup of the franchise is up in the air, with the trade deadline coming down the track. And one name that keeps popping up is standout forward Miles Bridges. He’s possibly headed out of Charlotte later this week, with potential landing spots in Phoenix, Sacramento, and Atlanta.

As for now, Bridges has to balance those rumblings with motivation and focus. During the Hornets’ current six-game funk, he’s shooting 43% from the floor and averaging just Over 20 points during this span. 

In his last game, Bridges played only 32 minutes and finished 3-for-16 for only nine points in a one-sided loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

Miles Bridges' odds for Sunday reflects the competition more than Bridges’ current form, with the Indiana Pacers’ defense ranked near the bottom of the league and their pace of play sitting seconded fastest in the NBA. 

Bridges’ total is at 26.5 points Over/Under, which is a bar he’s crossed only twice in the last 14 games. Player projections for the 6-foot-7 Michigan State product range from less than 21 points to as high as 25, but all models come in lower than this Over/Under total. 

My number sits at 23.4 points, which is well short of the oddsmakers expectations of 26.5 points from Bridges tonight.

Miles Bridges prop: Under 26.5 points (-115 at bet365)