Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Robinson Keeps Finding It From Deep

The early part of February usually isn't too compelling for casual NBA fans. 

The beginning-of-season excitement and uncertainty has long waned, and while teams work the phones ahead of the trade deadline, there's seemingly a lull before the playoff push begins in earnest.

Fortunately, the advent of NBA betting has given fans in many new markets a whole new reason to stay engaged throughout the season as we hunt for the best value. 

Let's check out our best NBA player prop picks for Saturday, February 5.

NBA player props for February 5

• Wagner Over 16.5 pts (-106)
• Jackson Jr. Over 7.5 rebs (+120)
• Robinson Over 3.5 made threes (-115)

Picks made on 2/5/2022 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

Making Magic

Franz Wanger has had a stellar rookie campaign so far, looking like a foundation piece for a Magic squad that's struggled mightily to draft them since trading Dwight Howard almost a decade ago. 

Wagner's averaging 15.8 points per game on the season, but has notched that up to an even 20 ppg over his past six games, clearing tonight's Over/Under of 16.5 in all of them. 

While the Memphis Grizzlies, tonight's opponent, are a solid defensive team, they play at a fast pace and gamble in passing lanes and helping off perimeter players, which could generate more open looks for Wagner. Overall, it shouldn't be viewed as minus matchup. 

Franz is hot, and as a promising rookie on a tanking team, he should, in theory, only see his reps increase down the stretch this season. We're getting this prop at a great price and have every reason to believe Wagner can top it again.

Pick: Franz Wagner Over 16.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)

Back on Jackson

So, the books are on to us. 

Instead of finding Jaren Jackson Jr.'s blocks + steals Over/Under a plus-money 3.5 again, it's now way juiced at -145, severely diminishing its appeal. That market's value may have dried up for now. 

Instead, we're shifting focus to Jackson's increased presence on the glass, where he averaged 6.8 boards per game in January, and is seemingly rebounding with a greater emphasis by the week.

Jackson's boards total sits at 7.5 tonight, a number that we're getting a nice +120 price on, and in a matchup that should yield great benefit to an Over. 

For starters, the Magic play at an above-average pace, meaning they're likely to get caught in a track-meet with the uptempo Grizzlies. Complementing that, Orlando is one of the NBA's worst shooting teams, owning the 28th-ranked effective field goal percentage. 

With the formula in place for a fast-paced game with lots of Magic bricks, here's the final fold: the Magic are also one of the league's worst rebounding teams, with the 23rd overall rebounding rate, and the very worst offensive rebound chance percentage in the league.

This pick is a lot more about the matchup and Jackson's potential upside on the glass than it is trend or results-based. It's a bit of a dice roll, but at plus-money, we like the gamble. 

Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr Over 7.5 rebounds (+120 at bet365)

Slam Dunc

It took a minute, but Duncan Robinson is shooting himself out of his early-season funk. 

Miami's resident sniper was hitting on just 33.1% of his 3-point attempts in November, ratcheting up to 37.6% and in turn to 41.1% in January, back among the league leaders where he belongs.

Robinson's thus canned four or more triples in five of his past eight games, and gets a matchup against the Charlotte Hornets this evening, who are a blue ocean for bettors of opponent 3-point props. 

Charlotte plays at the NBA's second-fastest pace, meaning any of their games are liable to turn into shootouts, especially at home. To boot, the Hornets allow opponents to jack up threes at the league's fourth-highest rate, and convert them at a Top-10 percentage.

All told, only Milwaukee allows more threes than Charlotte per game, and 0.1 more at that. 

This is a great spot for Robinson to keep shooting himself into a groove.

Pick: Duncan Robinson Over 3.5 made threes (-115 at bet365)

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