Best NBA Player Props Today: Miller Continues Rock-Solid Rookie Campaign

Prop bet #1: Rough to Randle

There are few shocking blockbuster trades in the NBA anymore, and almost none happen well ahead of the deadline. That’s what made the New York Knicks swapping Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett for a package built around OG Anunoby so juicy. 

The Knicks got a gem on the defensive end in OG, and a good shooter to boot, but their roster is incomplete, and by shipping out IQ and RJ in the same trade, they’ve gone from four ball-handlers to half that overnight. 

The trade of RJ and Quickley is going to have consequences throughout the roster. While Jalen Brunson is unlikely to be affected overly negatively, IQ and Barrett were both important to stabilizing Julius Randle in important ways.

As much as Brunson’s addition to the Knicks has done a lot to curb Randle’s worst habits, so did IQ and RJ taking on more on-ball responsibilities. This trade, for now, means more time on the ball for Randle, which is more tiring, and more fatigue means more mistakes.

Fewer legitimate ball-handling options saw Randle devolve into his worst habits against the Pacers on Saturday. These compelling Julius Randle odds make a wager on more of the same against the Minnesota Timberwolves the right call.

Julius Randle prop: Over 3.5 turnovers (+100 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #2: Motivated Myles

The In-Season Tournament was a success. And I say that not because of ratings or even the great performances we saw from budding young stars like Tyrese Haliburton or crafty veterans like LeBron James. 

No, the In-Season Tournament was a success because the players cared. And they cared enough to generate genuine animosity during the competition. So, a matchup between the Indiana Pacers and the Milwaukee Bucks on New Year's Day now has a level of gravity and meaning that simply wasn’t possible before.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be on a mission to dominate the Pacers again, and Myles Turner will play a crucial and productive role in trying to prevent that from happening. The Pacers are becoming an infamously poor defensive team, but they would be a lot worse without Turner manning the middle.

Turner is not at the peak of his defensive powers, but he’s still an elite shot blocker. He’s blocking 3.7% of opponent shot attempts when on the court this season, per Cleaning the Glass, 93rd percentile among all bigs. 

These specific Myles Turner odds strike me as too low. Turner has had at least two blocks in nine of his last 11 games, including three in the most recent against Milwaukee.

Myles Turner prop: Over 1.5 blocks (-130 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Miller's crossing

In a year full of rookies who have surprised for good and for ill, Brandon Miller has just been rock solid for the Charlotte Hornets. Miller is developing a little more craft off the dribble, but for the most part, he’s staying in his lane as a spot-up guy who can take a couple of dribbles into a shot attacking a closeout. That, alongside dogged determination on defense, has earned him a consistent role in Steve Clifford's rotation.

He’s also been able to take on more of the scoring load as other guys keep falling out of the lineup. There are more shots available for him on the wing now that Gordon Hayward is sidelined with a calf strain.

Miller is averaging 16 points over his last 10 games, but that number is depressed from his last game against the Denver Nuggets on December 23. Miller finished that contest with just four points on 2-for-5 shooting but only played 10 minutes after suffering an ankle sprain that cost him the rest of the game. These Brandon Miller odds seem to have taken that performance at face value and depressed his scoring prop as a result.

Taking that fluke out of the equation, Miller is solidly above this prop over this recent stretch at 17.3 points per game, and with only two 14-point performances that would have fallen short.

Brandon Miller prop: Over 15.5 points (-120 at bet365)