It’s a solid night of NBA action, with nine games on the board for hungry basketball bettors to dig into. That means there is a cornucopia of options in the player prop market.
We start things off with a nice plus-money 3-pointer prop that can be found in tonight’s matchup between the Heat and Thunder. Meanwhile, it may be Donovan Mitchell’s return to Utah but it’s Jarrett Allen who will be a handful for the Jazz. And, finally, how will Damian Lillard get out of his shooting slump?
Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Tuesday, January 10.
NBA player props for January 10
Picks made on 1/10/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Giddy for Giddey
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the scrappiest teams in the NBA this season. The Thunder are 24-16 ATS thanks to a good coach, and a core centered around a couple of great young pieces including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey (and hopefully Chet Holmgren next season).
While SGA has been as reliable as they come this season, in tonight’s matchup against the Heat, we’ve found some value with one of Giddey’s props. The sophomore small forward is having a great year for OKC, averaging 15.7 points on 47.1% shooting, while adding 7.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game. Today, we are focusing on Giddey’s shooting from beyond the arc.
Giddey is shooting a solid 35.5% from 3-point range but he has really found his shooting rhythm of late. Giddey is draining 46.2% of his 3-pointers over the last four games. Part of that is because he is taking more shots. Giddey has taken 4.3 attempts from long range over this four-game stretch, up from his season average of 3.1.
He’ll get the chance to keep letting it fly tonight against the Heat. Miami is a team known for its good defense, but that defense is also known for collapsing when the ball goes in the paint. That means if teams are willing to kick it out there will be some opportunities to hit some threes.
As a result, the Heat rank 21st in three-pointers allowed and give up the sixth most made threes per game.
Giddey has hit two or more threes in four straight games and in this matchup, at plus money, he’s worth a wager to make it five in a row.
Josh Giddey Prop: Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+160)
Spida overshadowed
Donovan Mitchell returns to Utah for the first time since being traded from the Jazz to the Cavaliers this offseason. With Mitchell scorching the mesh for the Cavs this season, there is likely to be no love lost for the Utah fans.
While Mitchell gets all the attention in tonight’s matchup, it’s one of his teammates who presents some nice betting value. That comes in the form of center Jarrett Allen and his point total.
Allen’s point total is set at an unsurprising 13.5, considering he is averaging 13.6 points per game this season, but when you take a look at the matchup against the Jazz, Allen has a great shot to eclipse that number tonight.
The Jazz have a lot of trouble when it comes to defending the interior. In fact, Utah ranks dead last in opponent points in the paint allowed per game. Allen was also a handful for the Jazz when these teams last met back on December 19, going 7-for-11 from the floor for 20 points.
With Mitchell serving as a bit of a distraction in this matchup, I’m backing Allen and the Cavs to take advantage of their edge on the inside and for him to go Over his point total.
Jarrett Allen Prop: Over 13.5 points (-105)
Shoot through it
It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that Damian Lillard’s recent shooting slump has coincided with the Portland Trail Blazers losing a handful of games, but the best way to get out of a shooting slump is to keep shooting.
Lillard hasn’t been shy about jacking up the treys this season, as he’s been attempting 10.7 3-pointers per game, hitting a respectable 36.6% of those attempts.
That said, he’s only attempted 7.5 threes over his last four games. Lillard will have a chance to get back on track against the Magic and return closer to his season average, as Orlando surrenders the second-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA.
Additionally, prior to this four-game shooting slump, Lillard was draining 40.3% of his 3-balls over his previous 12 games, and that included an eight-game stretch where he hit five or more threes six times.
With the extra opportunities Lillard should get against the Magic and the fact that he will likely try to shoot his way out of this slump, I’m like the plus-money value on the Over 4.5 made threes for Dame tonight.
Damian Lillard Prop: Over 4.5 made 3-pointers (+126 at FanDuel)
