Tonight’s NBA schedule features only three games, but they are all appointment television, highlighted by a battle between the league’s two most recent NBA MVPs. The Denver Nuggets, led by Nikola Jokic, will be taking on Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers, and we have you covered with the best NBA odds.
The matchup between Jokic and Embiid is one we have been eagerly anticipating for a long time. The last time these two squared off was almost a full year ago. Everyone was excited last season when we thought we were going to witness an MVP battle between the two at the end of March, but Embiid missed the game.
We all know Jokic is a triple-double machine and is one of the league leaders in assists. However, with our best NBA player props, I’m backing the other center to drop some dimes.
Let's take a closer look at my free NBA picks for Tuesday, January 16.
Best NBA player props today
- Embiid Over 4.5 asts (-132 at BetRivers)
- Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 asts (-115 at FanDuel)
- Fox Over 4.5 asts (-131 at PointsBet)
Picks made on January 16 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for January 16
Prop bet #1: Big helpers
We are all aware of Nikola Jokic's passing ability, as he is averaging 9.3 assists per game this season, ranking him third in the NBA behind Trae Young and Tyrese Haliburton. While Jokic is no stranger to dropping some dimes, let’s also give Joel Embiid his due credit.
The Philadelphia 76ers star is averaging 5.9 assists per game on 9.5 potential assists per game, a significant improvement compared to what we saw from him last season. Embiid’s previous season-high in assists per game was 4.2, as the 76ers center has taken significant strides in his ability to create offense for others this season.
Not only has Embiid become an improved passer, a quality he will likely want to showcase against his fellow former MVP, but Jokic also isn’t a plus defender. The Denver Nuggets are going to need to use different defensive coverages and send help to slow down Embiid, though, at this point, I don’t think anyone can guard him without significant help.
We will not only see Embiid creating offense for his teammates against the Nuggets, but we also caught this prop at a perfect time to help create a larger edge. Embiid just returned from injury on Monday, and after only recording three assists against the Houston Rockets, sportsbooks dropped his total from 5.5 to 4.5. This opened the door to a probability gap that we can exploit.
Embiid is projected to have 5.4 assists on Tuesday against the Nuggets, allowing us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -158. However, it is available at BetRivers at -132. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 8%..
Joel Embiid prop: Over 4.5 assists (-132 at BetRivers)
Prop bet #2: Thunderstruck
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be playing on the back end of a back-to-back as the Oklahoma City Thunder take on his former team, the Los Angeles Clippers, after facing the Los Angeles Lakers on Monday. The back-to-back spot shouldn’t be much of a worry here with SGA as they’re playing in the same arena so there was no travel involved, and this is a low-key revenge spot on top of a battle between two of the top teams in the Western Conference.
Gilgeous-Alexander played the Clippers on December 21 and had four dimes on five potential assists. Neither of those numbers is ideal when you consider the total is sitting at 5.5 for tonight, but when you go back and watch the film from this matchup, there is a bigger takeaway.
On December 21, the Clippers prevented Gilgeous-Alexander from creating for his teammates, but that didn’t lead to a Clippers victory. In fact, they were blown out by 19 points, and all five players in the Thunder starting lineup had four-plus assists, with Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren both dropping seven.
The Clippers won't be looking to run this strategy back and should be looking to switch up their defensive coverages. If this is how I feel and the total has dropped from 6.5 down to 5.5 without increased juice on the Over, you can see why I hit the button on this prop.
Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 6.4 assists on Tuesday against the Clippers, which allows us to price the Over 5.5 assists at -153. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 13%.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop: Over 5.5 assists (-115 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #3: Fox in the henhouse
De'Aaron Fox is on a massive Under streak with his assists total, going under the closing number in six straight games. This trend has resulted in his total dropping from 6.5 down to 4.5 but usually being bet back up into the 5.5 plus money range when it closes. Typically, we start the day with heavy juice on the Over for Fox’s assists total in the -145 range, but after another Under against the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday, in a game that went to overtime, we were able to find -131 on the Over 4.5 for Fox tonight.
Here's the thing with Fox: he doesn’t have a lob threat on his team, which makes his assists total vulnerable to the shooting of his teammates. If they aren’t knocking down open 3-pointers that he creates for them, he will struggle to clear the number. You can see it in his previous two Unders, where Fox generated 25 potential assists but only converted into nine actual helpers.
So, how does Fox clear the total? Well, it helps that the total is down two full assists from 6.5 to 4.5, but this matchup against the Suns also provides Domantas Sabonis and other Sacramento Kings players, who don’t really play above the rim, an easier path to scoring at the rim. If Sabonis can finish on the interior, it will boost Fox's ability to go over his assists total.
Also, Fox will have no problem breaking down this Phoenix Suns defense and creating shots for his teammates, and at some point, their jump shots will begin to convert from potential assists to actual assists once again.
Fox is projected to have 5.7 assists on Tuesday against the Suns, so you can see how, even with increased juice on the Over at -131, we have a probability gap with this projection well over the total. Based on this projection, we can price Fox at -192 to go over the total.
De'Aaron Fox prop: Over 4.5 assists (-131 at PointsBet)
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