Best NBA Player Props Today: Ingram Gets Hot vs Hornets

Prop bet #1: Dame's game

Damian Lillard and the Milwaukee Bucks will be facing the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday, and I believe this matchup provides us with an opportunity to take advantage of Lillard's points prop, specifically at the number of 23.5.

Lillard's point total was trading at 29.5 when the Bucks played the Sacramento Kings on Sunday, but that was because Khris Middleton was out of the lineup. Middleton will be back in the lineup for the Bucks on Wednesday, and while this may appear as a potential decrease in usage for Lillard in this matchup against Cleveland, I actually think it will create more space and room for Lillard to operate on the offensive end.

When the Bucks played the Cavaliers on December 29, Jarrett Allen did a great job of neutralizing Lillard's ability to get in the lane and score at the rim. The Bucks countered by having Middleton run the pick and roll with Giannis Antetokounmpo, making Lillard the first pass away after the defense rotated to stop the pick and roll. Not only did this open up wide-open jump shots for Lillard, but it also gave him the opportunity to drive and get in the lane away from Allen.

Lillard is projected to score 25.8 points against the Cavaliers on Wednesday, allowing us to price the over 23.5 points at -145. Based on this projection, the Damian Lillard odds are showing a positive expected value of 13%.

Damian Lillard prop: Over 23.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Trae's trap

As someone who lives in the assists market, I truly appreciate Trae Young's ability to pass the ball. Young is one of the best passers in the entire NBA, but this Under bet is just matchup-specific to the Orlando Magic. With the juice on the Under 10.5 sitting at -130, we have a probability gap.

Not only does Young have tremendous vision while constantly looking to set up his teammates, but he is also surrounded by teammates whose style of play helps him accumulate those assists. When Young plays the Magic on Wednesday, they have a counter that disrupts how Young gets many of his easy assists.

Magic center Goga Bitadze is one of the best centers in the NBA when it comes to playing drop coverage. The defense of Bitadze is the main reason that the Magic are looking to move on from Wendell Carter Jr. at the trade deadline. What this means for Young's assist prop is that those easy alley-oops to his lob threats of Onyeka Okongwu and Clint Capela won't be as plentiful on Wednesday.

Not only will the lob threats of the Atlanta Hawks be neutralized and hurt Young's ability to go over his assist total, but one of Young's main 3-point shooters is struggling from beyond the arc as well in Bogdan Bogdanovic. It's not even that Bogdanovic is struggling, but there were several times against the San Antonio Spurs on Monday where he just didn't shoot the ball and made an extra pass. If Bogdanovic continues to play like this, what was once a Young assist on a made 3-pointer now becomes a Bogdanovic potential assist on the extra pass.

Young is projected to drop 9.6 dimes against the Magic on Wednesday, which is well below the total of 10.5, creating a probability gap even with the increased juice. Based on this projection, we can price the Trae Young odds at -170 to go Under 10.5 assists.

Trae Young prop: Under 10.5 assists (-130 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Ingram gets back on track

For many, this will be the last bet they want to place after Brandon Ingram's points prop took a unit out of our account on Monday. Ingram has now gone Under his points total in seven straight games, and when this streak started, his total was at 25.5. It has now dropped eight points to 17.5. I know the Brandon Ingram odds didn't earn us the green check mark on Monday, but I stand by how I felt about this number at 18.5, so you had better believe I'm coming after it at 17.5.

This is too low of a number for someone as offensively skilled as Ingram. He isn't just going to go Under every single number for the rest of his career; this will flip at some point, and when it's eight points lower than where it was when the streak started, you have to start taking these Overs on him a lot more seriously.

Even if you look at Ingram's game on Monday against the Dallas Mavericks, where he went Under the total of 18.5 points by only scoring 12, it's not like the opportunities weren't there for him. Ingram had 14 field goal attempts, only making three, and was 0-for-4 from beyond the arc. For Ingram, it's not a question of usage — he just has to make the shots, and eventually, he will.

You know what team usually helps you break out of a shooting slump? The Charlotte Hornets, and that is who Ingram will be facing on Wednesday night.

Also, for a team like the New Orleans Pelicans that loves to rest its players, a spot against the Hornets could see the Pelicans sit out one of their big three. Nobody's on the injury report as of right now, but there is a chance that this Ingram bet also receives a boost with either CJ McCollum or Zion Williamson sitting out against the Hornets.

This bet for me is all about attacking a number, and Ingram is projected to score 19.8 points against the Hornets on Wednesday. That allows us to price the Over 17.5 points at -153. 

Brandon Ingram prop: Over 17.5 points (-115 at Caesars)