Best NBA Player Props Today: Johnson Holds Things Down for Nets in Hollywood

Prop bet #1: Maxey miffed by Magic

The Orlando Magic’s breakout has been one of the better stories in the NBA this season. An elite defense has fueled the Magic to a 22-19 record and the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference standings. That defense will be put to the test when they welcome the Philadelphia 76ers to town.

The 76ers come into this game playing well. They sit in third place in the East, they rank second in the NBA in net rating, and Joel Embiid is making a compelling case for a second consecutive MVP award. Simply put, it looks like the Sixers may finally make a long run in the playoffs.

A reason for that has been the development of Tyrese Maxey. The Philly guard is averaging 26.1 points on 38.5% shooting from 3-point range while adding 6.7 assists per game. But the Magic are a tough matchup for Maxey.

Orlando’s defense has been tenacious this season. The Magic rank third in the NBA when it comes to defensive rating and 11th in opponent effective field goal percentage, and they do an excellent job of getting after opposing guards. 

With guys like Jalen Suggs and Garry Harris, Orlando allows the sixth-fewest points to opposing guards. But that harassment also leads to fewer assists. In fact, the Magic allow the fewest assists per game in the NBA. And they did a great job against Maxey when they last met back on December 23. Maxey put up 23 points in that game but recorded just two assists.

The Tyrese Maxey odds have his assist prop for tonight’s matchup is sitting at 6.5. Our Covers Prop Projections have him projected for 5.9 assists. You can still get the Under at plus money.

Tyrese Maxey prop: Under 6.5 assists (+106 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: His aim is Jrue

The game of the day in the NBA takes place at TD Garden where the Boston Celtics, who own the Association’s best record at 32-9 and are undefeated at home, will host Nikola Jokic and the reigning NBA Champion Denver Nuggets.

Pretty much everything about the Celtics has been impressive this season. They are 20-0 straight up and 13-7 against the spread at TD Garden. They lead the NBA in net rating and are the only team in the Top 3 in both offensive and defensive rating. I would make the argument that Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White make up the best starting lineup in the NBA.

Today, I want to focus on the Jrue Holiday odds. The veteran point guard has been an upgrade over Marcus Smart. His defense is elite, and he’s been a more consistent shooter. Holiday is averaging 13.6 points per game on 42% shooting from 3-point range while adding 6.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game, and I like him to tap into his playmaking skills tonight.

That’s because while everyone knows Jokic and the Nuggets are an excellent offensive team, they are underrated at the defensive end of the floor, ranking a respectable 12th in defensive rating. But one way you can beat them is with the extra pass. Denver ranks 18th in assists per game to opposing guards.

Holiday’s assist total is sitting at 4.5 for this matchup. With a plus-money price tag, there is value in him to eclipse this number tonight. 

Jrue Holiday prop: Over 4.5 assists (+108 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Lights, Cameron, action

It’s been an ugly stretch for the Brooklyn Nets, who have just three wins over their last 17 games. Chances are things don’t get much better anytime soon as they are 7-point road underdogs for tonight’s matchup with LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.

But just because the Lakers are sizeable favorites here doesn’t mean that they’re good, and the Nets have a couple of players that can take advantage of their weaknesses. One of the biggest of which is on the perimeter.

The Lakers don’t seem to put much effort into closing out shooters beyond the arc. Los Angeles allows the fourth most 3-point attempts (37.9), and the most made 3-pointers per game (14.3) in the NBA while ranking 19th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

It’s been even worse lately, with the attempts bumping up to 40.5 and the makes hitting 15.3 per game. That has me looking at the Cameron Johnson odds on his made 3s prop.

Johnson is the Nets' best 3-point shooter, draining 39.3% of his 6.3 attempts from deep per game. But like most of his teammates, he’s hit a bit of a cold patch, going just 2 of 16 from beyond the arc over his last three games. But that has definitely not been the norm this season. 

In fact, before this little slump, Johnson had been shooting 45.4% from downtown over a 15-game stretch, hitting three or more 3s 11 times in that period. And if there’s a team he can get his shooting rhythm back against, it’s the Lakers. 

So, all this slump has done is give us a little value tonight. Take Over 2.5 made 3s at even money for Johnson tonight. 

Cameron Johnson prop: Over 2.5 made 3s (+100 at FanDuel)