Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Big Men Highlighting Sunday Slate

The modern NBA is often considered the era of guards and wings, guys with insane athleticism that can fly down the court and rain threes. However, we might be witnessing a renaissance of elite centers with three players standing out: Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, and Karl-Anthony Towns. 

We're backing two of those big men while expecting plenty of minutes (and subsequently boards) from the guy in the unenviable position of guarding Embiid in our best free NBA player prop picks for Sunday, January 23. 

NBA player props for January 23

• Poeltl Over 8.5 rebounds (-122)
• Jokic Over 38.5 points + rebounds (-105)
• Towns Over 23.5 points (+100)

Picks made on 1/23/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The Other Guy

Philadelphia center Joel Embiid has been incredible lately, totaling 90 points and 25 rebounds over the last two games. That said, the four-time All-Star is seeing pretty inflated Over/Under numbers tonight (with his points + rebounds total set at 43.5) so we're looking across the way for betting value.

Today, the 76ers are taking on the San Antonio Spurs who have Jakob Poeltl at center and not much else behind him (sorry Jock Landale) so the Austrian big man will likely log lots of playing time. 

Poeltl certainly isn't going to slow Embiid down offensively but he should at least be competitive on the glass where he has gobbled up at least 10 rebounds in eight of 11 games this month. Despite Embiid's inside presence, the Sixers rank just 28th in the league in rebounding rate so Poeltl should get plenty of opportunities.

With Poeltl averaging 10.5 rebounds per game over his last 13 contests, we're hammering the Over on his relatively low rebounds total. 

Pick: Jakob Poeltl Over 8.5 rebounds (-122 FanDuel)

Put on a Happy Face

Nikola Jokic is coming off his fourth-straight triple-double and while the Nuggets lost two of those contests they should find it easier to pick up a win tonight as they host the 11-34 Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons rank last in the NBA in rebounding rate and allow a whopping 50.1 points per game in the paint on the road. They'll likely resort to a combination of Isaiah Stewart and Trey Lyles to guard Jokic which is just as bad of an idea as it sounds. 

Jokic has been on a tear lately, averaging 26.2 points and 15.1 rebounds in 14 games over the last month. And with not much help around him in Denver, the reigning NBA MVP will once again need to have an extremely high usage rate. We're backing the Joker on the Over 38.5 on his points + rebounds prop. 

Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 38.5 points + rebounds (-105 at DraftKings)

Let the KAT out of the bag

The Brooklyn Nets head to Minnesota to face off against the Timberwolves and surprisingly it's the NBA Championship favorites who are the underdogs in this one. That's right: with Kevin Durant, Joe Harris, and Nic Claxton out of action the Nets are being spotted three points against a T-Wolves pack hunting for a playoff spot.

Kyrie Irving will be able to suit up for the Nets in this one and although we only have a relatively small sample size, a troubling trend has emerged for Nets backers. Brooklyn has allowed at least 112 points in five of six games with Irving in the lineup, surrendering 113.5 ppg in those contests — a number that would rank fourth-worst in the league if projected over the entire season. 

The Timberwolves have plenty of players to take advantage of those defensive issues, including leading scorer Karl-Anthony Towns who averages 24.3 ppg on 52/41/81 shooting splits.

Towns is coming off back-to-back relatively quiet performances but prior to that scored at 23 points in nine of his previous 11 games. Facing off against a Brooklyn squad featuring two over-the-hill big men, take the Over 23.5 on KAT's points total tonight. 

Pick: Towns Over 23.5 pts (+100 at William Hill)

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