Best NBA Player Props Today: Target Holmgren's Assists Total on Friday

Chet Holmgren has been the unicorn we expected in his rookie season with OKC, and we expect the Thunder star to shine as a facilitator in tonight's contest against New Orleans. Read more in our daily NBA player prop picks.

Jon Metler - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Jon Metler • Betting Analyst
Jan 26, 2024 • 15:19 ET • 4 min read
Chet Holmgren Oklahoma City Thunder NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

NBA Rivals week continues on Friday with a showdown between Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks facing off against Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks. We've dived into the NBA odds to bring you our best NBA player props for this exciting slate of games.

Let's rewind to the night of the NBA Draft in 2018, where the Atlanta Hawks used the third overall pick to select Luka Doncic. However, they subsequently traded Doncic to the Mavericks for the 5th overall pick, Trae Young, and an additional first-round pick, which they used on Cam Reddish in 2019.

Curious about who was drafted in between these two players with the fourth overall pick? You'll have to read on, as he is featured as one of our favorite player props for Friday. 

Find out who else I'm backing in my free NBA picks for January 26th.

Best NBA player props today

Picks made on January 26 at 6:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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NBA player props for January 26

Prop bet #1: Jaren Jackson Jr.

Jaren Jackson Jr. has been the focal point of the Memphis Grizzlies' offense with all of their recent injuries, but he will have his work cut out for him on Friday against the Orlando Magic defense.

Jackson's advantage on the offensive end is that, from the center position, he can handle the ball and stretch the floor with his shooting. It's difficult for opposing centers to guard Jackson because he can play like a guard. That advantage will be nullified against the Magic on Friday because they not only have one player in Wendell Carter Jr. who can defend against this, but multiple players in Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and even Goga Bitadze off the bench.

It'll be difficult for the Grizzlies to go matchup-hunting for Jackson because everyone in the Magic frontcourt has the speed and size to guard Jackson on the defensive end.

There's also a wild card at play here with this wager. Jonathan Isaac has been in and out of the lineup for the Magic this season, and when he plays, his minutes are usually capped at 15. I expect Isaac to play on Friday, and he is someone who can come in and completely ruin Jackson's offensive game over those 15 minutes.

It'll only be a short burst from Isaac, but when you have a high total on Jackson such as 25.5 already, this could be disruptive enough to send him under the total. Jackson is projected to score 24.9 points on Friday against the Magic, allowing us to price the Under 25.5 points at -120, but it is trading at -105 at BetMGM.

Jaren Jackson Jr. prop: Under 26.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Malik Beasley

I'm not going to lie; I didn't land on this bet because I was scouting a Malik Beasley points prop. I was reviewing the Milwaukee Bucks' game against the Cleveland Cavaliers from Wednesday to see how Donovan Mitchell had 16 potential assists, and whether I should consider running it back on the Under 7.5 assists for Mitchell on Friday at plus money.

It was hard not to notice the consistent effort by the Cavaliers' defense to help early and often on Giannis Antetokounmpo and try to build that wall to stop his drives to the basket.

You know what that means for someone like Beasley. For one, the Bucks need his minutes because he shoots 47.1% from beyond the arc, which is second in the NBA, and they need him to help space the floor for Antetokounmpo. It also means that he is going to get a ton of open looks from beyond the arc on the first or second pass off of an Antetokounmpo drive because the Cavaliers' guards are bailing quickly to help.

With the potential for elevated minutes, open looks from beyond the arc, and only a total of 9.5 points at even money, I'll hit the button on that.

Beasley is projected to score 10.9 points on Friday against the Cavaliers, allowing us to price the Over 9.5 points at -133 for Beasley, but it is available at even money at FanDuel.

Malik Beasley prop: Over 9.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Chet Holmgren 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams are absolute studs for the Oklahoma City Thunder. If you haven't been able to catch many of their games this season, I encourage you to tune in. They can both score with the best of them, but on Friday against the New Orleans Pelicans, life could be a little more challenging for Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams.

The Pelicans possess multiple defenders who can guard both Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, preventing the Thunder from hunting matchups for their leading scorers. I think this will lead to the Thunder looking for someone else to help create offense against the Pelicans, and that's why I'm targeting an Over on Chet Holmgren's assists prop.

The Thunder should exploit the speed of Holmgren and his ability to pull Jonas Valanciunas out to the perimeter. Holmgren can beat Valanciunas off the dribble and force the defense to collapse, ultimately creating open looks for his teammates.

If Holmgren can space the floor and keep getting the defense to collapse, he will create more scoring opportunities for Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams. Usually, this duo is creating for Holmgren, but I think you could see that dynamic shift a bit on Friday against the Pelicans because of the matchups.

Holmgren is projected to have three assists on Friday against the Pelicans, allowing us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -133, but it is available at bet365 at -115. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 7%.

Chet Holmgren prop: Over 2.5 assists (-115 at bet365)

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Betting Analyst

Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, Jon immediately turned his attention to the NBA when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 14 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve and, when possible, lets the numbers do the talking.

Jon hosts the NBA Prop Picks show powered by EV Analytics, which airs on the Covers YouTube channel, and he is also a regular guest on Before You Bet with Joe Osborne.

Jon keeps his eye on the NBA betting markets 365 days a year and uses 10-plus sportsbooks to always shop around for the best price for whichever bet he is looking to place. If there are NBA games on for that current day, you can guarantee that Jon woke up way too early, has already had some caffeine, and is ready to begin placing bets on NBA player props.

His favorite sportsbooks are Pinnacle, Caesars, and Betano, with the first two being where he places the majority of his bets, while Betano sneaks into the top three because of their creative futures markets for the NBA.

Before joining Covers in December 2023, Jon worked as a sports betting analyst at Sportsbook Review. He also holds a Bachelor's degree from the University of Windsor, where he studied Human Kinetics with a focus on Sports Studies.

Jon's top piece of advice for sports bettors: "Any outcome is possible in sports betting; you're just hunting for one that is more probable than the sportsbooks have it priced."

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