Best NBA Player Props Today: Good Luck Catching Up to Quickley

Prop bet #1: Kawhi heats up the Suns

Before his hip contusion that saw him miss four games, Kawhi Leonard was in the middle of a hellacious scoring stretch for the Los Angeles Clippers. His points prop in three of the four games before his injury was 28.5, four points higher than his prop tonight. 

Kawhi looked great physically in his return and played a normal number of minutes. Accounting for some amount of rust, he had a strong return game: 25 points on 10-19 from the field.

I think now that he has his legs back under him, he will resume the scoring rampage he was on before his absence. In the previous seven games before he hurt his hip he was averaging 32.4 points per game on 62% true shooting.

Last year's playoffs saw Leonard on track to eliminating the Phoenix Suns all by himself. The Suns simply had no answers for him. None of their defensive role players had the strength and it was too much for Kevin Durant to do for a full game.

In the two playoff games against Phoenix before his latest knee injury, Leonard averaged 34.5 points on 54.5% from the field and 60% from three. I’m not quite predicting that tonight, but I do think Leonard poses a unique defensive issue for the Suns. That issue is only further exacerbated by Durant being out of the lineup.

Asking Chimezie Metu or Josh Okogie to bang with Kawhi for a full 48 is not a serious answer, but with KD out, it’s the best Phoenix can do. With Kawhi looking healthy in his return and the Suns' defensive options being as limited as they are, Leonard's scoring odds make for one of my three favorite bets on Wednesday’s board.

Kawhi Leonard prop: Over 24.5 points (-120 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: O.G. Oh my!

The New York Knicks finally have a small forward. While RJ Barrett had been starting in that spot since he was drafted, in reality, Barrett is a shooting guard. The Knicks have thus paradoxically been a bruising physical team but one that is frequently smaller than the opposition.

The trade for O.G. Anunoby changed that. In his debut against Minnesota, Anunoby immediately proved his worth on both ends. O.G. was everywhere, blowing up plays off the ball while also making life miserable for Anthony Edwards whenever they shared the court.

O.G.’s offensive impact was muted for the Toronto Raptors because while the Knicks' spacing isn’t amazing, navigating the Raptors court was like trying to find a parking spot outside a Walmart on Black Friday. There were simply too many bodies around whom opposing teams could ignore, which limited one of O.G.’s better traits as a player — his cutting.

Last season, O.G. scored 1.54 points off of cuts, one of the best marks in the NBA. This year he’s been getting less than half that. The difference is the loss of Fred VanVleet, the Raptors' only true pick-and-roll point guard.

With the spacing and passing that Jalen Brunson provides, that should return. And it did against the Wolves, with O.G. surgically attacking openings in Minnesota’s defense and exploding for multiple quality looks at the rim.

Nobody on the Chicago Bulls provides a true physical matchup for Anunoby tonight, and they’re also still licking their wounds after getting beaten up by Joel Embiid all last night. Because of the way New York should be able to unlock O.G.’s catch-and-attack game, I think Anunoby's points prop is too low. 

O.G. Anunoby prop: Over 14.5 points (-145 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: High IQ

While it was Barrett who made most of the headlines due to his high draft slot and Canadian heritage, this trade was all about Immanuel Quickley.

Quickley has been the NBA’s best backup guard for a while now. He was officially the runner-up in Sixth Man of the Year last season and he’s been the Knicks' best player in terms of Plus-Minus. Whenever IQ is on the court, New York has been much, much better.

That’s because he does so many little things well, including making multiple efforts on defense while also having one of the NBA’s quietly excellent pick-and-roll games. But the foundation of it all is his shooting.

Quickley is one of the NBA’s best shooting point guards among non-All-Star players. He shot 44.1% from deep in December, and he did a lot of that damage on pull-ups and difficult takes coming off of screens.

IQ's debut for the Raptors was marred by uncharacteristic foul trouble, but he still managed to hit two threes in less than 30 minutes. I’m expecting him to see more time on the court and to increase his aggression as he gets more comfortable in his new starting role.

The Memphis Grizzlies are also one of the NBA’s worst teams when it comes to defending behind the arc, and they are in a matchup bind. Ja Morant isn’t strong enough to guard RJ and Marcus Smart isn’t fast enough to guard IQ.

Having Ja chase IQ around a hundred picks throughout the game is also a non-starter. As such, I think these Quickley odds offer incredible value at plus money.

Immanuel Quickley prop: Over 2.5 threes (+145 at DraftKings)