The Oklahoma City Thunder are closing in on the league’s best record, and this relentless winning machine has its sight set on the Indiana Pacers tonight.
While Indiana is 8-2 in its last 10 games, it’s been a rocky year on the road for Tyrese Haliburton & Co., and my Pacers vs Thunder predictions target a hungry OKC squad for another statement performance.
Find out more in my NBA picks and betting angles for Saturday, March 29.
Pacers vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Thunder -9.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander putting the finishing touches on his MVP run, there’s no sign of the Oklahoma City Thunder easing off down the stretch — and I don’t expect that to change tonight against the Indiana Pacers.
The Thunder are 9-1 in their last 10 contests, and they aren’t just grinding out tight victories either. OKC has covered the spread in each of those nine wins, extending a stunning ATS mark to 48-22-4 this season, and boasts an average margin of victory of 15.8 points at home this year. The hosts wear opponents down over 48 minutes, and that’s the formula I’m banking on here.
There’s plenty of buzz around the Pacers after climbing to the No. 4 seed in the East, but they’ve been a .500 team on the road this year (18-19) and their impressive run this month includes wins over the Nets (twice), Wizards (a 162-point effort), Mavericks, and 76ers. Not exactly a gauntlet.
So, while we’re looking at a sizeable spread, I still like the Thunder in this spot. They’ve hit the 1H moneyline in 13 straight contests, they edged past the Pacers in Indiana back in December, and they’ll have the best player on the court.
Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner may have some joy in the paint, but the visitors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 outings, and I have my doubts about their perimeter defenders’ ability to stay out of foul trouble against SGA and Jalen Williams.
I’m riding with OKC’s 31-5 record at Paycom Center and laying the points tonight.
Pacers vs Thunder same-game parlay
Thunder -9.5
Cason Wallace Over 10.5 points
Myles Turner Over 6.5 rebounds
With Chet Holmgren and Aaron Wiggins ruled out, plus Alex Caruso listed as questionable, this is a prime spot for the Thunder’s depth to shine through — and Cason Wallace stands out as a candidate for a jump in production tonight.
The arrow was already pointing up for Wallace, who’s logged 26+ minutes in each of his last seven contests, and he’s averaging 11.5 ppg in March while shooting 50% from 3-point range. I’m targeting the Over on his points prop, and he’s gone past this 10.5 O/U number in four of his last seven games.
Before Thursday’s blowout win in Washington, Turner had put together four consecutive games with 8+ boards, and he had 11 rebounds in his last meeting with the Thunder.
This should be a fast-paced contest, with both teams in the Top 10 in points per game and OKC sitting third in field goal attempts per game. Without Holmgren to contend with, Turner will see more of OKC’s smaller wings, and he should have an easier path to cashing this prop.
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Pacers vs Thunder odds
Pacers vs Thunder live odds
Pacers vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +9.5 (-110) | Oklahoma City -9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana +325 | Oklahoma City -425
- Over/Under: Over 239 (-110) | Under 239 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pacers vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- It speaks to OKC’s home dominance that Indiana arrives as a big underdog despite a 33-15 mark in its last 48 contests.
- The Thunder are 72-17 in their last 89 games.
- The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, but just 5-5 in the Pacers’ past 10 games.
- OKC has cashed the team total Over in 38 of its last 55 contests.
Pacers vs Thunder trend
The Over has been a winning ticket in 29 of the Thunder’s last 46 outings. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Thunder.
How to watch Pacers vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma |
| Date | Saturday, 3-29-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network-Indiana, FanDuel Sports Network-Oklahoma, KSBI, SN+ |
Pacers vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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