Best NBA Player Props Today: Thompson Takes a Different Route to Success

Prop bet #1: Board Brook

The Milwaukee Bucks visit the San Antonio Spurs tonight, and they’re probably just happy they're clear of the Indiana Pacers at this point.

The Bucks enter this matchup at 24-10 for the season with four of the losses coming against the Pacers. Otherwise, they have played very well, and the marriage of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard looks like a match made in heaven. 

Milwaukee ranks third in the NBA in offensive rating and should overwhelm a struggling Spurs team. One of the ways they should do that is on the boards. 

Despite having 7-foot-4 rookie Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs are not a very big team and are downright bad when it comes to rebounding. San Antonio ranks 27th in rebounding rate and 29th in opponent rebounds per game. And with the Spurs being a poor shooting team (27th in effective field goal percentage) there are plenty of rebounds up for grabs.

So, let’s take a look at a Bucks’ rebounding prop. But let’s avoid Giannis and his elevated numbers and turn our attention to his teammate Brook Lopez.

The Bucks center doesn’t clean the glass like he did back in the early years, but he is still an effective rebounder capable of pulling down big numbers. Lopez is averaging 5.1 rebounds per game this season and that is up to 5.9 over his last nine with six or more five times over that stretch.

I’m grabbing Lopez to go Over 5.5 rebounds in this matchup against the Spurs at a little better than even money.

Brook Lopez prop: Over 5.5 rebounds (+102 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Beasley does it

San Antonio ranks 25th in defensive rating, 27th in opponent effective field goal percentage, and 29th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. As a result, the Spurs give up the most made threes per game in the NBA (14.4). 

That’s not a recipe for success vs. this Bucks team. Milwaukee ranks eighth in 3-pointers attempted, which isn’t surprising for a team with Lillard. And Dame's let-it-fly mentality seems to be rubbing off on Malik Beasley. 

The Bucks shooting guard is hitting a crazy good 46.8% of his 6.3 threes per game this season, but he has been jacking up even more treys of late. Beasley has upped his output to 7.2 attempts over his last 16 games and he’s even improved his percentage a touch too, hitting 47% of those shots from deep

Beasley’s 3-point prop for this matchup is sitting at 2.5, which is unsurprisingly juiced to the Over. Instead, I’m looking at his alternate threes prop. Beasley to hit 4+ threes is on the board at +195. He’s hit four or more 10 times over the last 16 games. At this price, in this matchup, he’s a good bet to do it again. 

Malik Beasley prop: 4+ made threes (+195 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Splash the glass

The second game of tonight’s doubleheader sees the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets visit the Golden State Warriors. 

The Nuggets have won 10 of their last 12 and have climbed to third place in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Warriors halted a three-game losing streak with a much-needed win over the Orlando Magic last time out. But the win brought them to just 16-17 and they are in 11th place in the West.

While the Nuggets clearly look like the better team, my favorite prop comes from an unexpected place for this game: Klay Thompson.

Well, the Thompson part isn’t unexpected, but the prop category is. I’m looking at his rebounding prop in this matchup, which sits at +135 to go over 3.5. 

The Splash Brother is getting a good number tonight, with his rebounding prop sitting at 3.5 with the Over sitting at +135. We are getting this price because Thompson has just five rebounds over his last three games. But I think that’s just giving us some value tonight.

Thompson averages 3.7 rebounds per game but that is up to 4.1 over his last 16. And before this little rebounding slump, Thompson averaged 4.7 rebounds over 13 games, grabbing four or more boards 10 times in that period. 

Now, the Nuggets are a solid rebounding team but they rank 13th in opponent rebounds per game. On top of that, Denver takes a fair number of shots, ranking 13th in field goal attempts, meaning more rebound opportunities. Thompson also had six boards in a Nov. 8 meeting against the Nuggets. I like him to go Over again tonight.

Klay Thompson prop: Over 3.5 rebounds (+135 at DraftKings)