Best NBA Player Props Today: Take Advantage of Brook's Low Rebounding Total

Prop bet #1: Money Middleton

The Milwaukee Bucks are a funny team to figure out. They were immediately anointed as Finals favorites when they made the Damian Lillard trade, but for a team that has won a lot of games, there have been a lot of rocky moments as well. 

Their point differential wasn’t indicative of a true contender, their coaching has raised serious questions, and for a long time, it wasn’t clear if Khris Middleton was going to recover from the knee problems that seriously limited him last season as well.

While some of those remain open questions, it appears that Middleton at least is fully rounding into form. The Bucks have slow-played his ramp-up to full activity, but his minutes are steadily climbing, and his scoring efficiency and defense are getting back to his career norms. 

These Khris Middleton odds are skeptical of his play on Saturday, I think mistakenly, because while he’s averaged 18.4 points over his last five games, he scored just 12 points in fifteen minutes on Thursday.

However, that seems to have been a deliberate measure to avoid falling prey to the NBA’s new Player Participation Program. Middleton is subject to its scrutiny as a recent All-Star, but the Bucks have also wanted to avoid playing him on back-to-backs, which their game against the Spurs was. 

The Bucks simply sat Middleton for the second half to continue his injury management routine, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll be limited at all against the Houston Rockets.

Middleton is up to over 59% true shooting on the season and excluding the last game when he was rested in the second half, he’s eclipsed this prop number in seven of his last nine outings.

Khris Middleton prop: Over 15.5 points (-120 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Knicks quiet Kuzma

Kyle Kuzma’s name is swirling in trade rumors right now as the Washington Wizards begin to lean into the tank and think long-term. For most NBA teams, Kuzma is now the best small forward target they could snag in a trade.

That’s in part because the New York Knicks just got the top name on that list when they added O.G. Anunoby. While Anunoby’s counting stats don’t amaze, he’s a stunning +74 through three games with New York.

Kuzma’s scoring has been less than stellar of late, and I think he’s in for a tough night against Anunoby.

Kuzma has scored 17 points or fewer in four of his last six games, the two exceptions came against the Hawks (a Bottom-5 defense) and the Nets who aren’t much better. O.G. is perhaps the best defender at his position and has forced players much better than Kuzma into horrendous shooting games.

The lurking potential of another blowout is also another strong vote in favor of this prop. The Wizards just got the snot kicked out of them last night when they squared off against the Cavaliers.  The Knicks, meanwhile, blew out the 76ers on their home floor. 

The Knicks are rolling right now, and it’s not just that O.G. is fitting hand in glove. They’re getting more from previously underutilized Quentin Grimes and Deuce McBride, who are ball hawks of the highest order. That overall defensive pressure could force Wes Unseld Jr. to throw in the towel early. 

Given that I think O.G. is also going to restrict Kuzma’s production when he's on the court, I think these Kyle Kuzma odds strongly favor a play on the Under.

Kyle Kuzma prop: Under 20.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Big Brook

Brook Lopez has had one of the most fascinating career arcs of any current NBA player. He was a multi-time All-Star for the Nets, who dominated in the low post and around the rim, and was known to be a turnstile on defense.

He then reinvented himself as a 3-point shooter and perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate for the Bucks. Through it all though, he’s never been a great rebounder for someone his size, but he’s been making a real impact on the glass recently, making these static Brook Lopez odds an intriguing bet.

The Rockets are a middling rebounding team overall. They’re slightly above average on the defensive glass, but they forfeit the offensive glass in favor of transition defense. That tradeoff has been very effective for them this season, but it means that Lopez is going to have numerous uncontested rebounds.

And one on one, Lopez should have the advantage against Alperen Sengun. Lopez is a legit 7-feet and 282 pounds. He has nearly 40 pounds and old man strength to edge out Sengun on the glass. 

Brook is averaging 5.6 rebounds over his last 10 games and had six against the Rockets when they played last on December 17. He’s had at least five in eight of those 10 as well.

Brook Lopez prop: Over 4.5 rebounds (-150 at bet365)