There’s no better way to kick off the weekend than with some winners in the NBA player prop market and with six matchups on the board, there is plenty of basketball betting value to be found.
Oddsmakers haven’t adjusted to the fact Tyrese Maxey has been cooking since returning to the starting lineup, Kyle Kuzma has been a matchup problem for the Hawks, and Jamal Murray is looking like the guy who went off in the bubble.
Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Friday, March 10.
NBA player props for March 10
Picks made on 3/10/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
To the Maxey
Friday night features a great matchup of guards when Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers visit James Harden and the Philadelphia 76ers, but it’s another guard I want to hone in on and that is Tyrese Maxey.
Maxey has been re-inserted into the Sixers' starting lineup and he has rewarded Doc Rivers by getting buckets. The Philly guard is averaging 26 points per game on 57.9% from the floor, which includes a ridiculous 57.5% of his 6.7 attempted threes per game, over the last six.
Tonight, Maxey will take aim against a Portland team that has some issues when it comes to defending opposing guards. Part of that is because Dame spends all his energy getting all the buckets. The Trail Blazers rank 25th in the NBA when it comes to points surrendered and 26th in opponent field goal percentage to opposing guards.
While the Blazers don’t give up a ton of threes per game, when they do, it tends to be open looks, as Portland ranks 23rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
It looks like books haven’t picked up on the fact that Maxey is flourishing as a starter again, setting his point total at 20.5 once again. He’s gone Over that number in six straight games with no fewer than 23 points over that span.
Tyrese Maxey prop: Over 20.5 points (-115)
Kuz bruises
The Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards are jockeying for position in the Eastern Conference play-in standings. The Hawks currently hold the eighth spot while the Wizards are in 10th and it looks like it will be a back-and-forth battle down the stretch.
Tonight will be the third time these two teams have played since February 28, with both teams earning a road victory in those games. Both games have been high scoring, but there is one player who has been a big mismatch: Kyle Kuzma.
Kuzma has been in a groove since returning from a knee injury that cost him four games, averaging 22.7 points per game over nine games. Kuzma has been a real problem for the Hawks, as he’s gone for 28 and 25 points in those two games, shooting 48.8% from the field. There’s no reason he can’t do it again.
Defense has been an issue for the Hawks all season, ranking 22nd in efficiency, 21st in scoring defense, and 24th in opponent field goal percentage.
Kuzma’s point total for this one is on the board at 21.5. He’s gone for 23 or more six times in the last nine games. I like him to do it again tonight.
Kyle Kuzma prop: Over 21.5 points (-115)
Spurs of the moment
The Denver Nuggets are the top seed in the Western Conference, thanks in large part to the MVP play of Nikola Jokic. Also helping is the fact that they once again have a healthy Jamal Murray to be Robin to Joker’s Batman. Wait, that can’t be right.
Anyways. Murray is looking like the guy who caught fire in the NBA bubble. The Nuggets’ sharpshooter has really upped his production from beyond the arc of late. Murray is jacking up a whopping 9.9 threes per game over his last 10 games, draining an impressive 40.4% of those attempts.
Murray will have a great chance to keep draining treys when the Nuggets visit the San Antonio Spurs on Friday night.
The Spurs look much more interested in lottery balls than in playing defense at the moment. Here are a few categories San Antonio ranks dead last in: Defensive efficiency, scoring defense, opponent field goal percentage, and most importantly for us tonight, opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Murray’s 3-pointers made prop is set at 2.5 but juiced pretty heavily to the Over. So instead, let’s look at his alternate made threes prop. You can get him to hit four or more threes at +200. Prior to going 1-for-7 from long range against the Chicago Bulls last time out, he had hit four or more threes in four consecutive games and in six of his previous nine.
Murray should keep letting it fly tonight against the Spurs and I really like the value here.
Jamal Murray prop: 4+ made threes (+200 at bet365)
