As if the Dallas Mavericks were not thin enough, now they have to go on a back-to-back ending against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The NBA schedule makers had no way of knowing how shorthanded Dallas would be these days, but this was still the furthest thing from a favor.
Oklahoma City might become indifferent in the second half, just as the Timberwolves became late last night, so my Mavericks vs. Thunder prediction and NBA picks will focus on the first half and trust Oklahoma City’s fresher and deeper legs to turn this into quick and early work. Tip-off comes at 8 ET on Thursday, January 23.
Mavericks vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Thunder -8 — 1H (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
No one should be too shocked that the Dallas Mavericks have struggled while Luka Doncic has been sidelined by a calf injury since Christmas Day. But those who pay closer attention also noticed this week’s news that second-year center Dereck Lively II will miss at least a month with a right ankle stress fracture.
Lively is a key piece in the Mavericks’ rotation, and losing him has amplified Dallas’s stumble down the Western Conference standings, now at No. 9. If Doncic misses much more time, it is easy to see the Mavs falling out of even the Play-In Tournament.
Last night they were also without Klay Thompson, Dwight Powell, and Najj Marshall. This lineup has simply run out of pieces, with all due respect to Kessler Edwards and Quentin Grimes.
There may not be a worse team to face when you are shorthanded than the Oklahoma City Thunder. They simply keep throwing youth and length at you, a deep bench going at least three players deep in players that would currently start for Dallas. And that youth and length should get out ahead early tonight.
They did not last night — yes, Oklahoma City is also on the second night of a back-to-back, though one without travel and a reasonably comfortable win last night. The Thunder led by just two points at halftime, creating a ripe coaching opportunity for Mark Daigneault to harp on tonight.
If Oklahoma City capitalizes against this G League-esque roster, it should be able to coast late. There is no better way to cap a back-to-back with both games at home than an easier second half. Expect that tonight.
Mavericks vs Thunder same-game parlay
Thunder 1H -8.0
Under 222
Daniel Gafford Over 14.5 points
Since Doncic’s injury, nine of 14 Dallas games have gone Under their totals, a trend that should be emphasized when both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back. If this game is decided late, neither coach will want to press his players for a comeback or for glamor points. They are more likely to cruise into the final buzzer.
But Daniel Gafford may have to play a full game, regardless. The Mavs simply do not have enough players to turn much elsewhere. He has averaged 27.2 minutes in five games without Lively, clearing this point prop in two of them, with last night coming within the hook.
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Mavericks vs Thunder odds
Mavericks vs Thunder live odds
Mavericks vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +11 | Oklahoma City -11
- Moneyline: Dallas +425 | Oklahoma City -575
- Over/Under: Over 218.5 | Under 218.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mavericks vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- Last night’s disparate results boosted this spread. It opened with Oklahoma City favored by 11 points, but as soon as the Mavericks played the Timberwolves tight and the Thunder cruised past the Jazz, this spread began to climb, reaching -13 before midnight on the East Coast.
- This spread peaked at -13.5 late on Thursday morning before returning to -13.
- This total opened at 218.5 but did not move with any initiative until the earliest hours of the morning, at which point it steadily climbed to 221 before sunrise and then 222 late in the morning.
Mavericks vs Thunder trend
Dallas has gone 4-10 against the spread since Doncic’s injury, one of those ATS wins coming last night on a 3-pointer as time expired to cut a four-point deficit to just one as a 3.5-point underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Thunder.
How to watch Mavericks vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma |
| Date | Thursday, 1-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KFAA, WFAA, FDSN OK |
Mavericks vs Thunder latest injuries
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