The red-hot Detroit Tigers (7-5) begin a three-game weekend series with the reeling Minnesota Twins (4-9) on Friday at Target Field.
Detroit has won five of its last six games and faces fill-in starter David Festa.
I’m heading to the player prop market and am bettering on Spencer Torkelson to stay hot in my Twins vs. Tigers predictions and MLB picks for Friday, April 11.
Tigers vs Twins prediction
My Tigers vs Twins best bet: Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150 at bet365)
The former first overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft out of Arizona State, Spencer Torkelson, had mostly disappointed through his first few years in the Big Leagues.
Expected to be an immediate impact bat for the Detroit Tigers, the former Sun Devil instead has a slightly below-average 99 wRC+ in his career.
That’s all flipped around suddenly in 2025 as Torkelson was mashing in Spring Training and has continued doing so through Detroit’s first 12 games.
The big right-hander has a 201 wRC+ on a robust .311/.415/.622 slash line.
After posting -4.6 batting runs a year ago, he’s already posted 6.3 this season, narrowly below his career-best 6.4 in 2023. Not bad for a few week’s worth of work!
The underlying metrics (83rd percentile xwOBA, 85th percentile xSLG) support Tork’s newfound ability at the plate.
He’s making hard contact (85th percentile average exit velocity, 87th percentile hard-hit percentage) and is doing so in the right place (96th percentile launch-angle sweet spot).
David Festa, a 25-year-old right-hander, gets the call as the Minnesota Twins shuffle around their rotation in the wake of the Pablo Lopez injury.
The Seton Hall product threw his slider and four-seamer a combined 80% of the time against right-handed bats in his 14-appearance Big League debut a year ago.
That’s right up Tork’s alley, as he’s positively destroyed both offerings.
Tork has an absurd 300 wRC+ against the four-seamer and a 329 wRC+ against the slider so far this season.
Small sample size asterisk aside, it’s evident that he’s seeing those two pitches well.
Festa also sprinkles in a changeup as his third offering, but Tork has crushed those as well (327 wRC+).
The books are offering good plus money on Tork notching 2+ total bases, something that he’s done in five of his last nine games.
I can’t pass up on the offer, given his current form and the favorable pitch type splits.
Tigers vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 total bases
Reese Olson Over 17.5 outs
David Festa Over 4.5 strikeouts
Festa is known as a strikeout specialist, recording a 34.9% K rate at AAA a year ago and a 27.8% K rate in the Majors.
Detroit has the highest wRC+ (159) against RHP but still strikeouts out plenty (24.5% K rate), so Festa should look to implement his 82nd-percentile chase rate in this matchup.
Reese Olson takes the mound for Detroit and faces a struggling Minnesota lineup averaging 2.3 runs across its last four games.
The Twins have underwhelmed against RHP (97 wRC+ and .299 wOBA) and Olson is fully ramped up, averaging 93.5 pitches per game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Tigers vs Twins odds
Tigers vs Twins live odds
Tigers vs Twins opening odds
- Moneyline: Detroit (-105) | Minnesota (-115)
- Run line: Detroit +1.5 (-250) | Minnesota -1.5 (+185)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Tigers vs Twins trend
Spencer Torkelson has recorded 2+ total bases in five of his last nine games, averaging 2.2 total bases per game in that period. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Twins.
How to watch Tigers vs Twins and game info
| Location | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Friday, 4-11-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Reese Olson (1-1, 5.06 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher | David Festa (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Tigers vs Twins latest injuries
Tigers vs Twins weather
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