The Pittsburgh Pirates will open a three-game series with NL Central rivals on Friday when they face the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park.
Bailey Falter seeks his first win of the season with an 8.10 ERA for the Pirates, while Brady Singer looks to move to 3-0 with a victory for the Reds.
Our Pirates vs. Reds predictions for Friday, April 11 explains why Falter is set to do just that against a team that’s given him problems in the past.
Pirates vs Reds prediction
My Pirates vs Reds best bet: Bailey Falter Over 5.5 hits allowed (+135 at bet365)
Bailey Falter has had mixed results in his first two starts. He pitched well against the Marlins — allowing seven hits over six innings while striking out four — but fell victim to the Yankee machine, allowing seven runs on seven hits in just four innings.
The symmetrical hit number is an area I'll target for my best bet, but not because of pure statistics. Rather, I'm backing the Cincinnati Reds to get six or more hits against him partly because of their history.
Falter faced the Reds three times last season, during which time he allowed over a hit per inning. He only didn’t concede at least six hits in those three games when he pitched just four innings, allowing five.
Cincinnati hitters have done well against Falter, and this presents a terrific chance for their bats to wake up. The Reds are coming off an 8-6 loss against San Francisco in 10 innings, a game where they managed just six hits but scored six runs.
Five of those hits came off starter Justin Verlander, who also walked three batters. One thing Falter does is limit walks, which means the Reds will only reach via a hit.
The problem for Falter is he’s not missing bats right now. Opponents are chasing at a rate of just 20.9%, and he ranks in the Bottom 25th percentile in fastball velocity and average exit velocity, while ranking in the eighth percentile in hard-hit rate.
The Reds have multiple players who have performed well against Falter, and the weather conditions are favorable on Friday with the wind blowing out hard to right field.
He’s expected to face seven hitters batting from the right side, and The BatX is grading him among the worst pitchers on the slate while projecting he won’t hit his strikeout numbers.
Falter’s ERA was a run higher on the road last season. He routinely got hit hard the second time he faced batters and often was roughed up in the first inning. Given his poor metrics to start this year, and the fact opponents are hitting over .400 with an xBA of almost .340, I think the Reds are being undervalued against him.
This bet is +125 or lower at most places, but bet365 has it currently priced at +135. That provides even more value, and makes it a must-play for me.
Pirates vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Bailey Falter Over 5.5 hits allowed
Elly de la Cruz Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Reds first five -0.5
Elly de la Cruz has faced Falter nine times, striking out in three of those meetings with just a pair of singles to his name. But he’s hit him extremely hard with an average exit velocity of 97.8 mph.
The hitter currently ranks in the 90th percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. He’s coming off a strong outing and hitting .333 at GABP this season with a pair of home runs and two doubles.
The Reds will have the pitching advantage in this matchup, and I expect they’ll lead after five. Brady Singer has allowed just three extra-base hits in 42 plate appearances against current Pittsburgh Pirates hitters, and has posted a .198 xBA so far this year.
I like the Reds to win the game on the whole, but I don’t want to rely on their bullpen, which has been hit or miss in the early season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Reds odds
Pirates vs Reds live odds
Pirates vs Reds opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +125 | Cincinnati -150
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-180) | Cincinnati -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Pirates vs Reds trend
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the moneyline in seven of their last 10 games at home (+5.15 Units / 49% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Reds.
How to watch Pirates vs Reds and game info
| Location | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Friday, 4-11-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Bailey Falter (0-1, 8.10 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher | Brady Singer (2-0, 2.25 ERA) |
Pirates vs Reds latest injuries
Pirates vs Reds weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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