Best NBA Player Props Today: Timberwolves Keep Davis Quiet

Prop bet #1: Murray makes plays

Two things can be true. The New Orleans Pelicans are playing some of the best basketball in the NBA right now, on both ends of the court. And their pace, while seemingly average, should boost numbers for the Atlanta Hawks tonight.

That first statement is not hyperbole. The Pelicans rank No. 6 in offensive rating and No. 2 in defensive rating since Feb. 1, with their net rating trailing only the Celtics over that span. If you're looking to add one more future to your portfolio before the postseason, a flyer on New Orleans to win the West at +3,000 at BetRivers holds some merit.

If there's a reason to doubt the Pelicans beyond their relative youth, it's that they do not dictate the terms of any game. Their pace since Feb. 1 ranks No. 15 in the league, perfectly average.

Meanwhile, Atlanta’s pace has plummeted since Trae Young’s injury, falling to No. 24 in the NBA in seven games since his hand injury from No. 2 in the 17 games in the month beforehand (pun not intended but enjoyed.)

Despite that plodding pace, Dejounte Murray has made the most of his increased workload, averaging 8.4 assists and managing at least nine in four of the seven games. In 12 games without Young this season, Murray has given out 9+ assists in seven.

With a slight uptick in pace tonight thanks to New Orleans — even if the Pelicans will not drastically accelerate the game — Murray could crack 10 assists.

Dejounte Murray prop: Over 7.5 assists (-104 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: The time is now

Much of what we do here is based on recent performances. Put simply, if a player has been playing poorly in recent weeks, it's that much less likely anyone bets an Over on any of his props. And vice versa.

Franz Wagner has averaged only 16 points in nine games since the All-Star break. Backing him when his points prop is as high as 21.5 points may seem like misplaced faith.

Don’t look at it as a bet on Wagner. Look at it as a bet against the Indiana Pacers’ paint defense.

No one in the NBA gives up more field goal attempts within five feet of the rim than Indiana, its 36.1 per game since Feb. 1 is nearly two shots ahead of the rest of the league. The Pacers’ paint defense is easily argued to be the worst in the NBA.

Worse yet, opponents shoot well close to the rim, 65.5% since Feb. 1, the ninth-highest percentage in the league.

No one on Orlando’s roster should be better positioned to take care of Indiana’s interior weaknesses than Wagner, taking 7.4 field goals at the rim per game since Feb. 1, 13th-most in the league.

Of those 12 players ahead of him in quantity, only Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis are making more than Wagner’s 71.4%. Wagner doesn’t need open looks at the rim to convert them, but he’ll get them this evening. That alone should be enough to spur Wagner to only his second night of at least 22 points in the last month.

Franz Wagner prop: Over 21.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: AD contained

The Minnesota Timberwolves are worse without Karl-Anthony Towns. Make no mistake about that. No matter how well the Timberwolves may play over the next month — that is not a prediction, just acknowledging that possibility — remember they are worse without Towns.

However, Minnesota should be better suited to face players exactly like Anthony Davis, who has long bothered the Timberwolves.

Davis has poured in at least 31 points in his last four games against Minnesota. The first of those was without Towns in the lineup, but Davis’s scoring output was boosted by a parade to the free throw line, going 12-for-14 at the stripe, the most free throws he's ever taken against the Timberwolves.

For all of Towns’s offensive strengths, he struggles to keep up with playmaking forwards defensively. Kyle Anderson and Naz Reid will fare better than Towns traditionally does.

And as much as referees tend to bend to Los Angeles, they should be reluctant to whistle away on Minnesota tonight after Rudy Gobert’s comments on Friday. He may have cost the Timberwolves that tight game at Cleveland, but there are also usually benefits to such public criticisms.

Anthony Davis prop: Under 23.5 points (-111 at FanDuel)