Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Graham Steps Up For Missing NOLA Stars

Let’s tip-off the weekend with some winners in the NBA player prop market — and with 10 games on the schedule, there is no shortage of great options to be found.

Tonight, we look at a prop for one of the Magic big men, whose rebounding slump isn’t nearly as bad as it looks on the surface. And with both CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram out, who will step up for the Pelicans against the Hornets?

Check out our NBA player prop picks for Friday, March 11, as we bank on some of the NBA's best to do their thing.

NBA player props for March 11

• Bamba Over 6.5 rebs
• Capela double-double - Yes
• Graham Over 15.5 pts

Picks made on 3/11/2022 at 12:12 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

Gimme some Mo

Mo Bamba has had a tough time cleaning up the glass lately but that might be giving us some value with the Orlando Magic big man when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.

Bamba averages 7.9 rebounds per game this season but has grabbed just five rebounds or fewer three times in his last four outings — and now we get a rebounding total of just 6.5 for him in this game against the T-Wolves.

And that number looks ripe for the picking.

For starters, Bamba is actually averaging 8.0 rpg over his last 13 contests and has hauled down seven or more boards nine times over that stretch. The four times he didn’t go Over 6.5 rebounds came against the Grizzlies, Nuggets, Pelicans, and Raptors — teams that rank first, third, fifth, and 14th in rebounding percentage this season.

He’s also had some solid performances on the boards against good rebounding teams in that stretch, however, including the Jazz, Pacers, and Suns. And the T-Wolves are less than good at rebounding: Minnesota ranks 21st in rebounding percentage and 23rd in opponent rebounds per game.

I think we’ve found a perfect pairing of a fake slump and a good matchup to give us a great number to jump on the Over.

Pick: Mo Bamba Over 6.5 rebounds (-115)

A-Capela

The Atlanta Hawks host the Los Angeles Clippers in a matchup of two teams currently sitting in play-in spots in their respective conferences, but the Hawks are 6-point favorites in a game we are betting that Clint Capela will have a big impact.

The Hawks’ big man averages 10.6 points and 12 rebounds per game this season and this looks like the perfect spot to back him to record a double-double. While Capela only has four double-doubles in the last 11 games, he has missed one in each of his last two contests by one rebound and one point, respectively, and has 26 on the year.

Tonight, he gets a plum matchup against the Clippers.

Los Angeles is not a very good rebounding team, ranking 24th in the NBA in rebounding percentage and 28th in opponent rebounds per game. Plus those struggles in the paint aren’t just when it comes to rebounding, as the Clippers also rank 25th in opponent points in the paint.

This is probably going to be a sweat but you’ve got to love the value for Capella to record another double-double at +160. 

Pick: Clint Capela double-double - Yes (+160)

Graham cracker

Since CJ McCollum was traded to the New Orleans Pelicans, he and Brandon Ingram have taken it upon themselves to shoot the Pels out of any situation. Unfortunately, neither will be suiting up for tonight’s game against the visiting Charlotte Hornets.

McCollum and Ingram have combined for a whopping 37.4 field-goal attempts per game since becoming teammates. That’s a lot of shots for the remaining Pels to make up... but if anyone is up to the task it may just be Devonte’ Graham.

The Pelicans shooting guard gets a point total of 15.5 for this matchup against his former team and is averaging 12.5 points on just 36.1% shooting this year. Graham gets that number because he averaged 15.5 points in 13 games without Ingram prior to the McCollum trade. 

But it has to be noted, that in those games the Pelicans still had Josh Hart and Nickeil Alexander-Walker on the roster, who were the third and fourth scoring options for New Orleans at the time — and they both now reside in different zip codes.

On top of that, Graham will be motivated going against his former team in the Hornets: a team that isn’t anything to write home about defensively, particularly on the perimeter. Charlotte ranks 23rd in defensive rating and 28th in scoring defense, in large part because it allows the second-most 3-point attempts per game while ranking 23rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

Someone is going to have to score for the Pelicans besides Jonas Valanciunas in this one, and Graham looks like a great bet to be that player.

Pick: Devonte' Graham Over 15.5 points (-115)

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