Before the madness consumes basketball bettors for the next week, the NBA rolls out a seven-game slate on Monday night.
I scour those matchups for my best NBA player prop picks for March 13.
NBA player props for March 13
Picks made on 3/13/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Hayes plays… a lot
The Detroit Pistons are going all in on tanking for top prospect Victor Wembanyama and the injury bug is helping them do just that, marching out a skeleton crew against the Indiana Pacers tonight.
According to the injury reports, Detroit will likely be missing Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart, Hamidou Diallo, and Marvin Bagley III. That’s pretty much the team’s starting rotation and the Pistons' five top active scorers, giving guys like Killian Hayes plenty of floor time.
Hayes found himself in the starting five this weekend in place of Ivey, who is in COVID protocols. He played 37 minutes, went 7-for-17 and finished with 17 points, 13 assists, and six rebounds in a loss to this same Pacers team.
Indiana could also be down some notable bodies tonight, with Tyrese Haliburton listed as doubtful and Buddy Hield tagged as questionable. The Pacers aren’t a great defensive team at full strength, ranked out 26th in advanced rating on the year.
That should make for an easier night for Hayes on both ends, with his point total for Monday sitting at 13.5 points. Someone has got to shoot the shots for Detroit and Hayes will once again log major minutes for the paper-thin Pistons.
Killian Hayes prop: Over 13.5 points (-118)
The Miami Vice
Not to take much away from Utah Jazz All-Star Lauri Markkanen, but he hasn’t faced the stiffest defensive competition over the past two months.
In fact, if we look back at Markkanen’s last 20 contests, we see the Jazz faced only one Top-10 team in defensive rating (played No. 10 OKC twice) and 15 of those foes were No. 16 or worst in that measurement, with 10 opponents ranked in the bottom third in defensive rating (20th or worse).
In steps the Miami Heat on Monday night.
Miami is No. 7 in defensive rating on the season and catches Utah on the final stop of a six-game road trip tonight. The Heat love to throw extra bodies at their opponent’s best player, bringing plenty of double teams and forcing roll players to step up.
The last time Markkanen clashed with a squad as sound defensively as Miami, he scored 25 points at home vs. No. 1 Cleveland, shooting just 6-for-18 from the floor including 1-for-5 from beyond the arc on January 10. He also came away with only 21 points at No. 3 Memphis on 8-for-18 shooting on Jan. 8.
Markkanen, who sees his production dip away from Salt Lake City, is coming off a rough night against Charlotte on Saturday, connecting on only 3 of 22 attempts from the field with a 1-for-9 night from distance in 36 minutes. He hasn’t been sharp so far this month, shooting just 41% overall and only 28% from 3-point range in March.
Teammate Talen Horton-Tucker has seen his touches spike in recent outings, shooting 42 shots the past two games and scoring a collective 60 points. His increased role in the offense and the Heat’s pressure forcing the ball out of Markkanen’s hands will leave the Finnish native below his expected output for tonight against a much stiffer challenge in South Beach.
Lauri Markkanen prop: Under 25.5 points (-108)
Houston, you have a problem
A tall total and big spread set a game script for a blowout win for the Boston Celtics when they visit the Houston Rockets tonight.
Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum leads that charge with an ambitious point total of 31.5, which could be a stretch should Boston build a big lead – like the spread says it will – and coasts in the second half with the starters getting some rest.
Instead of Tatum’s points prop, we’re betting Over on 3-pointers made. His total for tonight is 3.5 triples, which seems like a small challenge considering the volume in which Tatum and the Celtics are chucking it up from beyond the arc.
As a team, Boston is bombing away from 3-point land in March, attempting more than 43 shots from distance per game over the last six contests. Many of those long-range looks are coming from Tatum, who's jacking up almost 11 3-point attempts per outing in that span.
Tatum is making those deep shots too, entering Monday with a collective 17-for-41 from outside in the past three games (41.4%). Outside of an ice-cold 0-for-7 showing from distance against Brooklyn on March 3, Tatum has hit at least four triples in the other four games in March.
Houston isn’t going to push back much from beyond the arc. The Rockets watch foes bury almost 38% of their 3-point takes, with teams averaging more than 39 attempts for a league-high 14.7 makes per game.
Tatum took on this soft perimeter back in late December, knocking down 6 of 16 from outside and finishing with 38 points in a 126-102 win over Houston.
Jayson Tatum prop: Over 3.5 made threes (-115)
