Thursday’s schedule is a short stack of options, with just four games on the NBA odds board.
I make the most of this minuscule menu, going big with my best NBA player prop picks for March 2.
NBA player props for March 2
Picks made on 3/2/2023 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Beal’n and dealing
The Washington Wizards' backcourt took a hit this past week, with point guard Monte Morris missing time due to back problems, and he’s now listed as week-to-week after receiving an epidural injection Wednesday.
Morris’ absence has left more ball-handing duties to shooting guard Bradley Beal, who has seen his assists production peak the past three games. Beal has dished out seven, eight, and eight assists in that span, going Over his assist prop in each of those contests.
Bookies are pumping his assist Over/Under up to 6.5 for Thursday’s run-in with the Raptors, with the Over priced out at +116.
Toronto is one of the better defensive teams in the NBA but does struggle to contain transition teams, like the Wizards. Washington ranks out Top 10 in transition frequency, with an average of 1.15 points per play.
The Raptors also allow more than 26 assists per game (25th) and watch foes boast the second-highest assists per field goal ratio in the land (0.644).
With Beal coming off a huge 37-point explosion in the win over Atlanta, expect the Raps to toss multiple bodies his way, forcing him to find open teammates in space.
Bradley Beal prop: Over 6.5 assists (+116)
Ballin’ with Collins
San Antonio Spurs center Zach Collins has made the most of his extended role since taking over as a starter after the team traded Jakob Poeltl to Toronto.
Collins has averaged 14 points and eight rebounds in his last seven games, including posting a double-double in three of those outings.
Collins’ numbers were tempered against a burly Utah Jazz frontcourt the past two games, finishing with 15 points and five rebounds and seven points and six boards in back-to-back games in Salt Lake City.
Tonight’s opponent, however, doesn’t push back as much on the boards. The Spurs are home at last, hosting the Indiana Pacers in their first homestand off the annual Rodeo Trip that took San Antonio on the road for nine straight games starting back on February 8.
The Pacers are among the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, with a rebound rate of just 48.2% (27th). Indiana is especially awful on the defensive glass, giving up a league-high 12.2 offensive boards per outing.
Collins’ rebound total for tonight is 7.5 (Over -130) but considering the matchup, there’s a fair shot he grabs 10 or more boards, scoring some easy offensive putbacks to also put him past double figures in points.
Collins took advantage of the Mavericks’ piss-poor rebounding last Thursday and walked away with a double-double payout of +240. This Pacers game is promising an even higher return on the double-double odds against an equally inept rebounding team.
Zach Collins prop: Record a double-double (+260)
Fuss over Russ
The Los Angeles Clippers aren’t having the success they wanted when they snatched up Russell Westbrook, going 0-3 with the veteran guard on the roster. But it’s tough to put the blame on Brodie.
Westbrook has been very efficient on offense, doing it all for the Clippers in terms of scoring, rebounding, and playmaking. Russ is also providing some pop on defense, with seven steals in his three games with L.A. — five coming against Denver last Sunday.
Westbrook has a good shot to swipe more wayward passes tonight with the Golden State Warriors on the calendar. The Dubs are among the most careless teams in the NBA, sitting second worst in turnovers (16.4 per game) and allowing rival defenders to stack up almost eight steals an outing.
Oddsmakers are all but guaranteeing at least one steal from Westbrook, with his steals total for Thursday parked at Over 0.5 (-250) — a 71.43% implied probability. I’m not going anywhere near that juicy total, but I’ll take his Over 1.5 steals + blocks prop which is dealing a +130 return.
Given that Westbrook is a near shoe-in for one swipe and the Warriors are playing sloppy basketball with a busted backcourt — no Stephen Curry, no Gary Payton Jr., and Jordan Poole is nursing a bum knee — the chances of Russ recording at least another steal or maybe even a block are pretty good.
Golden State watched Portland guards Damian Lillard and Matisse Thybulle both record three steals/blocks in Tuesday’s game and Minnesota guards Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley also topped that bar against the Dubs last Sunday.
Russell Westbrook prop: Over 1.5 steals + blocks (+130)
