Sunday is the fun day in the NBA with plenty of marquee matchups on the NBA odds board and action running from 1 p.m. ET to 10 p.m. tonight.
Check out my best NBA player prop picks for March 5 below.
NBA player props for March 5
Picks made on 3/5/2023 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Sunrise
The Phoenix Suns have been slowly working newly-acquired megastar Kevin Durant back into action since his return from a knee injury. Durant scored 23 points in 27 minutes in his Suns debut vs. Charlotte and followed that up with 20 points in 31 minutes in a blowout win over Chicago.
With the Dallas Mavericks (and old Brooklyn running mate Kyrie Irving) on deck Sunday afternoon, Phoenix will take the training wheels of Durant in a very important game in the Western Conference.
With the Suns fighting off Golden State and Dallas for a Top 4 seed, head coach Monty Williams told reporters he doesn’t foresee any minute limitations for Durant this weekend. Given the state of Phoenix’s roster and the rate at which the Mavericks can light up the scoreboard, I’m expecting major minutes and plenty of points from Durant.
His Over/Under for Sunday’s showdown is sitting as low as 24.5 points with the Over listed at -105. Durant has been very efficient in his first two games back from an MCL sprain, firing up a collective 17-for-25 from the field including just 4-for-8 from 3-point range.
He’s very much eased his way back into action and played at his own pace against some lesser foes, but will open it up against Dallas. The Mavericks continue to struggle on defense and rank in the bottom third in defensive rating on the year, with that metric swelling to 119.0 since mixing Irving into the lineup.
Sunday’s game with the Suns has one of the biggest totals on the board and Durant will do his share of that scoring as he goes out to prove his worth against his former teammate.
Kevin Durant prop: Over 24.5 points (-105)
Block lockdown
I’ve been betting block totals for Utah Jazz rookie 7-footer Walker Kessler a lot in recent weeks, and it’s paid off. Kessler has topped his blocks O/U in eight of his last 10 games, including swatting 11 total shots in his last two meetings with Oklahoma City.
The Thunder host Kessler and the Jazz again tonight, and his block total remains at 2.5 with the Over paying EVEN money. The towering Auburn product just sent back four wayward field goal attempts against OKC on Friday and this second of the home-and-home series sets up for another big night in blocks.
Oklahoma City’s offense is one of the most aggressive at attacking the rim, ranked out head and shoulders above all others in drive rate and No. 3 in points in the paint. That interior focus has also led OKC to end up on the wrong end of the block stats as well, with foes stuffing the Thunder an average of 5.6 times per game.
Kessler is great at holding his ground in the paint and his length allows him to block shots without really having to jump and put himself in foul trouble. He’s seen his block stats soar in the past two weeks as the schedule has served up OKC twice as well as other drive-heavy attacks like San Antonio and Memphis.
Kessler has averaged 4.2 blocks per game in that five-game span and had four blocks against the Thunder last time out, despite playing only 25 minutes in a blowout loss for Utah. He’s been providing extra pop on offense as well, which has the rookie seeing an uptick in floor time.
I’m going to ride this block prop until the wheels fall off, especially considering the makeup of Sunday’s opponent.
Walker Kessler prop: Over 2.5 blocks (+100)
Big brain game
The Boston Celtics need a statement win in a hurry after blowing a 28-point lead in a loss to Brooklyn last time out. The Celtics host the red-hot New York Knicks in a huge Atlantic Division battle Sunday night, with head coach Joe Mazulla asking his guys to be more aggressive on the offensive end.
Veteran guard Marcus Smart will be the guy getting those shots set up. His assist totals have waned a bit since the All-Star break – along with Boston’s production – but with Mazulla calling for more activity on offense, Smart posted eight assists in the loss to Brooklyn on Friday.
He has a good chance to play quarterback for Boston today, given stellar sixth man Malcolm Brogdon is questionable – leaving Smart as the primary ball handler – and Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (and Smart’s defensive check) has also been downgraded to questionable for this contest.
Smart’s teammates Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown gushed over his playmaking in a recent interview with ESPN and SB Nation’s Celtics Blog pointed out that Smart’s passing has generated 739 total points this season.
He had only two helpers along with 19 points in the loss to New York back on February 27 but had to step into a scoring role with Brown out of the lineup for that game. His assist total for Sunday’s contest is at 5.5 with the Over priced as high as +110.
In the six games before the All-Star break, Smart topped 5.5 assists in four of those outings while averaging seven dimes per game. I expect the C’s to get back on track offensively, fire up plenty of shots, and for Smart to hand out at least six assists Sunday night.
Marcus Smart prop: Over 5.5 assists (+110)
