It’s seventh heaven for NBA betting tonight with two huge do-or-die Game 7 scenarios on the board, as the Celtics host the Bucks and the Mavericks visit the Suns for a ticket to the conference finals.
Games this big beg to be bet beyond just the spreads and totals, which means digging into the alterative NBA playoff betting odds. We rundown the matchups and possible scenarios shaking out in these Game 7’s, giving our favorite free NBA player prop picks for Sunday, May 15.
NBA player props for May 15
Picks made on 5/15/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
I know this much is Jrue
Last week, I played an Under on Jrue Holiday’s total points for Game 5 and got called out for it on Twitter, and rightfully so. My bet was banking on an inefficient and weary Holiday to come up cold on the road against Boston’s stingy defense.
However, what I failed to take into account is that beyond Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Milwaukee Bucks really have no one else to consistently score the basketball. Holiday finished with 24 points on a rough 9-for-24 shooting effort (4-for-7 from deep). I ate crow while taking a hit to the wallet.
Holiday followed that with a 7-for-17 night (3-for-10 on threes) and just 17 total points in Game 6, which has his point prop for today’s Game 7 back down at 20.5 (Over -118).
Those 17 field goal attempts last time out were the fewest Holiday has amassed in a game this series, after putting up an average of just over 23 shots per game through the first five outings. Milwaukee desperately needs a bigger night from its veteran guard in Game 7 and his pre-Game 6 pace has his projected production around 21.8 points for Sunday’s matinee.
Holiday tossed up 10 shots from beyond the arc in Game 6 and could continue to take those long-range looks, telling the media the Bucks have to find ways to get up more 3-pointers against a switch-happy Celtics defense that’s packing the paint.
With the season on the line, the defending NBA champs will turn to their vets and Holiday will have plenty of chances to go Over his point total today.
Pick: Jrue Holiday Over 20.5 points (-118)
Booker on the boards
The Phoenix Suns have dominated the glass in this conference semifinal series with the Dallas Mavericks, boasting a rebound rate of 54.7%. And it hasn’t just been the Suns' frontcourt crashing the boards. Guards like Devin Booker have also gotten in on the rebound rage.
Booker has posted rebounding totals of eight and seven in the last two games and is averaging 5.7 rebounds for the series. The 6-foot-5 Kentucky product isn’t having to battle for boxouts on most misses either, as Dallas’ small-ball rotation is parked on the perimeter and many 3-point misses are bouncing long and right into Booker’s hands.
Defense is Phoenix’s main focus heading into Game 7. The last time these teams played in the Footprint Center, the Suns checked Dallas to just 38% shooting from the floor and only 8-for-32 from beyond the arc, leaving plenty of rebounds up for grabs. Game 7’s total is down to 205 points and with both teams leaning on defense to get the job done, bookies expect a good share of misses.
Booker’s rebound total for Game 7 is bouncing between 4.5 (Over -138) and 5.5 (Over +115), depending on where you bet. Shop around for the lower total and lay a little extra lumber for the slimmer rebound prop.
Pick: Devin Booker Over 4.5 rebounds (-138)
Banking on Brunson blunders
Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson has done a very good job limiting his mistakes, considering the company he’s keeping on the other side of the floor in this conference semifinal.
The Suns are among the best defensive clubs in the NBA and force 14.5 turnovers per contests on the season (No. 7). As for this series, Phoenix’s defensive intensity – or Dallas’ carelessness – has been greater inside the Footprint Center, where the Suns have forced an average of 15 turnovers compared to just 11.2 in the three games at Dallas.
That decisive split has shown up in Brunson’s turnover stats for the series, totaling eight giveaways in those trips to the desert (2.7 TOs per game) versus a mere three turnovers at home, including a clean sheet in Game 6.
Brunson is vital to the Mavericks’ success on offense, with his dribble-drive attack collapsing the Suns defense and scoring vital points in the paint. He’ll continue to play major minutes and see the second-most touches behind Luka Doncic, so the potential for two or more turnovers is still high – especially in a pressure Game 7 scenario.
Betting Over the 1.5 turnovers for Brunson is no way a knock on his skill set, but more a value bet play on a prop that has a pretty good shot at cashing, knowing Phoenix will throw the kitchen sink at Brunson tonight.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 1.5 turnovers (-110)
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