The NBA was rather sloppy this March. As seven teams dive toward the best lottery odds and another four are already quite clear of any seeding worries, most games included at least one team taking the night less seriously than we’d prefer.
That can skew our NBA picks, but there are a few matchups that should be played earnestly on Tuesday, April 1.
Two feature Western Conference teams plummeting down the standings amid horrid vibes, focusing on their superstars, yielding chances at betting value, even as they doom their teams.
Best NBA player props today
Morant Under 24.5 points (-115 at bet365) 
Booker Over 27.5 points (-115 at bet365) 
Edwards Over 28.5 points (-110 at bet365)
NBA player props for April 1
Ja Morant Under 24.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Ja Morant returned to the Memphis Grizzlies’ lineup only after they had already fired head coach Taylor Jenkins, a decision that defies understanding. Dismissing some of Jenkins’ staff further confuses the Grizzlies’ path forward, still in position right now to be the No. 5 seed in the West.
Until tonight.
If Memphis runs its losing streak to four games and seven of its last eight, it will fall behind the Golden State Warriors in the standings. Tonight’s opponent? The Warriors.
Morant may have much of his explosiveness back after a hamstring injury sidelined him for two weeks, but Golden State has the exact kind of wing defenders who can slow him. As the Grizzlies’ season falls apart — Memphis could be tied for No. 8 in the West if it loses tonight, suddenly at risk of missing the playoffs proper — asking Morant to play disciplined may be a stressor too far.
Jimmy Butler and Jonathan Kuminga (day-to-day) should stay in front of Morant, while Draymond Green’s growing Defensive Player of the Year campaign will be buttressed if he can direct a defense to shut down the Grizzlies’ point guard.
Morant has shot just 19-for-43 in the two games of his return, including 3-for-12 from deep. His utter inefficiency will lead to plenty of empty trips tonight.
Devin Booker Over 27.5 points (-115 at bet365)
All the worries about Memphis’ direction can also be emphasized in Arizona. The Phoenix Suns are apparently already near a divorce from Kevin Durant, now out for at least a week with a sprained ankle. As of today, they are not even in the Play-In Tournament, sitting a game behind the Kings.
And that gap could widen tonight, with Phoenix a 5.5-point underdog in Milwaukee.
The Milwaukee Bucks do not have an abundance of backcourt defenders unless Giannis Antetokounmpo takes on the task of slowing Devin Booker. With Bradley Beal day-to-day, thanks to a hamstring worry, the entire Suns offense could land on Booker’s shoulders.
And as one of the best scorers in the NBA, that might be Booker’s ideal scenario. Phoenix found something of a groove the last couple of weeks, winning four out of five games before suddenly hitting a three-game losing streak. Turning to the likes of Ryan Dunn, Nick Richards, and Collin Gillespie removed some of the politics in the lineup, letting the Suns’ superstars dictate their own terms.
That should be further underscored for Booker with Durant still sidelined.
Anthony Edwards Over 28.5 points (-110 at bet365)
A right thumb laceration has plagued Anthony Edwards for the last week. The wrap on his shooting hand was more than a wrap, a brace seeming to impact his thumb’s movement, presumably a precaution to prevent the injury from being aggravated.
Edwards shot like that brace was a detriment, going 23-for-59 (39.0%) from the field in 3.5 games, including 8-for-31 (25.8%) from deep, before he removed the brace at halftime on Sunday.
He had been 2 of 8 from the field and 0 of 3 from deep in the first half against the Pistons. In the second half, Edwards hit 7 of 11 from the field and 4 of 7 from three. Afterward, he directly cited the brace’s hindrance.
With Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid both suspended for tonight after their fracas with the Pistons on Sunday, more of the offensive workload will be on Edwards tonight. He fares well against the Denver Nuggets, clearing this points prop in all three matchups this season while shooting 58.3% from the floor and 44.1% from deep.
Denver struggles to defend Edwards’s pick-and-roll attacks, further doomed when Aaron Gordon is less than 100%.
Edwards should exploit that for a fourth time this year.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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