The Pistons’ pettiness on Sunday leaves the Minnesota Timberwolves short-handed tonight in a crucial game against the Denver Nuggets. Minnesota will be without its two top reserves in the final matchup of the year with Denver while looking to complete a season sweep of Nikola Jokic & Co.
My Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks are not bold enough to bet on an upset tonight, but they do see value created by the absences of Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid. Tip on TNT comes at 10:00 p.m. ET from Ball Arena on Tuesday, April 1.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet: Anthony Edwards Over 28.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Anthony Edwards was struggling. In 3.5 games, he averaged 16.9 points per game while shooting 39.0% from the field and 25.8% from deep. A laceration on his right thumb necessitated a bulky brace, far more than a simple bandage.
The final half of that mess came Sunday against Detroit, with Edwards going 2-for-8 from the field and 0-for-3 from deep before halftime. He pulled off the brace during the break and rediscovered his shooting form, hitting 4 of 7 threes in the second half as he scored 20 points.
"Occam’s Razor" believes Edwards was quite impacted by that brace, and it thus looks past the last four games and his bad shooting. Before that concern, Edwards had cleared this prop in three straight and in four of five, in some part because he emphasized trips to the free throw line if his shot wasn’t drawing net.
Sunday’s surge was only one half of basketball, but it indicated Edwards’ slump may be through. And if there is any opponent to emphasize that against further, it is the Denver Nuggets. They lack a perimeter defender who can handle Edwards in the pick-and-roll, particularly when Aaron Gordon is at all slowed, as he is these days with a calf frustration.
Edwards has cleared this points prop in each of his three games against Denver this season. A harsher critic would wonder if some of his success against the Nuggets is self-fulfilling in that Denver head coach Mike Malone said this week that he is convinced the Minnesota Timberwolves play harder against the Nuggets than they do anyone else. Watching a team on tape and being bothered by their impressive effort is not exactly a rallying cry from a head coach.
Minnesota is in Denver’s head, and offensively, that starts with Edwards. While Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid are suspended tonight, Edwards should shoot even more often. The Timberwolves’ success from deep always hinges on Edwards, but all the more so without the two sharpshooters off the bench.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Anthony Edwards Over 28.5 points
Jaden McDaniels Over 5.5 rebounds
Nikola Jokic Under 10.5 rebounds
Some of the faith in Edwards stems from the absences of DiVincenzo and Reid. Missing Reid will also push Jaden McDaniels to power forward more often, something seen while Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert fought injuries much of the last two months.
At power forward, McDaniels feasts on the boards. He is taller than the claimed 6-foot-9, and he has consistently put on muscle the last couple of years. He can bang with the bigger bodies and get around those like Nikola Jokic.
McDaniels has cleared this prop in 30 of his 43 games since New Year’s, many of which came without at least one piece of Minnesota’s front line, as will be the case tonight.
Reid is not a relentless rebounder, so his absence does not inherently boost Jokic’s numbers like one might expect. The greater deterrent to Jokic’s rebounding is Randle’s and McDaniels’ strength. They have helped keep Jokic to single-digit rebounds in each of the three matchups this season.
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Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds
Timberwolves vs Nuggets live odds
Timberwolves vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +2.5 | Denver -2.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota +120 | Denver -140
- Over/Under: Over 231.5 | Under 231.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a 2.5-point underdog late on Monday, climbing to +3.5 in the overnight and settling at +3 in the morning.
- But then DiVincenzo and Reid were officially suspended, pushing the spread back to +3.5. Their suspensions were expected ever since their Sunday-night ejections, so the official word should not have moved this spread at all.
- The total opened at 231.5 and bounced down to 230.5 before settling at 232.5 early on Tuesday.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets trend
Minnesota has won five straight against Denver, dating back to Game 6 of last year’s second-round series. They are also 4-1 against the spread in the last five matchups, the exception coming solely by a hook. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Nuggets
| Location | Bell Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Timberwolves vs Nuggets latest injuries
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