After an action-packed weekend of NBA Playoffs, Monday’s slate gets set to a slow simmer with just two games on the NBA odds board.
Luckily, there are thousands of ways to wager on tonight’s tilts: Cavaliers vs. Heat and Rockets vs. Warriors. That means a long list of NBA player props to sort through.
Here are my best NBA picks for April 28.
Best NBA player props today
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VanVleet o4.5 assists (+110) -
Adebayo o1.5 threes (+155) -
Curry o5.5 assists (-130)
NBA player props for April 28
Fred VanVleet Over 4.5 assists (+110 at bet365)
The Golden State Warriors are to Fred VanVleet as two beers are to me. We’re not productive in those head-to-head battles. The Houston Rockets’ veteran point guard has struggled against Golden State in recent meetings, and that’s carried over to the postseason.
VanVleet is shooting worse than 27% from the field in the first three games and hasn’t been able to generate much offense off his playmaking either, recording a total of five assists in the past two outings.
That’s not to say those assist opportunities aren’t there. He did have seven assists in Game 1 and is averaging 9.0 potential assists in the series. Coming off three dimes in Game 3, the pricing on VanVleet’s assist prop is starting to plummet.
His total has remained the same for all four games — closing at 4.5 assists (some books were at 5.5 O/U) — but the vig on the Over has gradually flipped game-to-game, slimming from -162 to -154 to -120. Game 4’s market has Over 4.5 listed at +110.
Despite the offensive struggles, VanVleet is going to get his minutes, and to his credit, he did have 11 potential assists in Game 3, but Houston didn’t shoot well as a team (39.5%), and those set-ups were wasted.
Player projections still have faith in VanVleet’s playmaking, with all models consulted sitting at five dimes or higher, with a ceiling of 7.8 assists in Game 4. My forecast is at six assists, which should have this prop total priced around Over 4.5 -230, but you can find plus-money on this option.
Bam Adebayo Over 1.5 threes (+155 at bet365)
Sometimes, circumstances and situations outweigh the projections. The Miami Heat are fighting for their lives at home in Game 4, set as sizable underdogs against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.
Miami will turn to its stars to shine, and with the game script calling for the Heat to battle from behind, I see Bam Adebayo taking a ton of shots. That includes some attempts from beyond the arc. With Miami getting busted in Game 3, Bam jacked up seven attempts from distance and made four of those long-range looks.
He’s been active from outside against Cleveland’s towering frontcourt, going a collective 6-for-17 from 3-point range (35%) in the series. Bam’s player models, however, top out at 1.1 made 3-pointers in Game 4. That forecast has the Over 1.5 triples paying a solid return.
Adebayo has been much more of a 3-point threat in the second half of the season. In the wake of the Jimmy Butler trade, Adebayo’s 3-point attempts jumped from 2.4 (0.7 makes) to 3.4 per game (1.5 makes). Before the postseason, Bam had made two or more 3-point buckets in each of his final seven games, with 2+ triples in 10 of his last 12 regular-season showings.
Miami’s other standouts are coming up short in this series, with Andrew Wiggins MIA and the Cavs defense doing a fantastic job wearing out Tyler Herro. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and Over 1.5 3-points from Adebayo is a bet on the Heat’s desperation.
Stephen Curry Over 5.5 assists (-130 at bet365)
Stephen Curry did it all for the Warriors in Game 3. With Jimmy Butler out of action, the veteran point guard not only scored 36 points but also dished out nine assists. That was Curry’s second straight nine-dime effort after dishing out only three assists in Game 1.
For the series, Curry is producing almost 13 potential assists per contest, including 17 potential assists in Game 3. Golden State didn’t exactly shoot well in that win, making only 43% of its field goal attempts, which spoiled those set-ups.
With the team optimistic about Butler’s status for Game 4 tonight, Curry’s scoring production could take a dip. He took 23 shots in Game 3, including 13 3-pointers, but I don’t see him being that aggressive in Game 4. His passing prowess, however, will continue to fuel this Warriors attack.
Player projections all sit above the 5.5-assist total with a high of 6.5 helpers, with my forecast coming out just north of six dimes. The Over is obviously juiced with a much higher ceiling, considering past performances.
This Rockets defense will focus on getting the ball out of Curry’s hands, with multiple looks and pressure. That leads to more passing and potential playmaking.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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