Best NBA Player Props Today: Luka Keeps Pouring it On Against Chicago

Prop bet #1: More Luka magic

For all the questions and scrutiny over the Dallas Mavericks’ offseason moves, it turns out that the brilliance of Luka Doncic can paper over just about everything so far. 

The Mavericks are unlikely to be a good defensive team but they’re off to a 3-0 start, with Doncic pulling the strings and on a ruthless scoring tear. I see that hot streak continuing tonight in a favorable matchup against the Chicago Bulls.

The 51.5 line for his points, rebounds, and assists prop might look like a big number, but Doncic has breezed past that total in each of Dallas’ three games. In fact, he almost got there on points alone in a 49-point masterpiece against the Brooklyn Nets last week.

While Doncic will surely cool off from downtown after an 18-for-37 start on triples, he’s got the look of a superstar eyeing an NBA MVP odds run. As a nightly threat for double-digit rebounds — he’s had 10 or more boards in all three outings — and the man orchestrating the vast majority of Mavericks possessions, the Slovenian is powering to monster stat lines.

Some of that likely stems from the embarrassment of missing the playoffs last year, which could explain why Doncic has exploded out of the gate rather than easing himself into the season. Even with Kyrie Irving short of his best, the Dallas offense is humming to the tune of 125.3 points per game (tied for best in the NBA).

The Bulls have served up a mixed bag of defensive performances in their 2-2 start, but they had no answer to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the season opener and that doesn’t bode well for handling Doncic’s own crafty game tonight. If Alex Caruso, Chicago’s best defender, gets into foul trouble, things could get ugly in a hurry for the Bulls.

Doncic is rolling at the moment and I’m riding the hot hand here.

Luka Doncic prop: Over 51.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Herro ball

Just about every version of a Miami Heat trade for Damian Lillard would have sent Tyler Herro to a new team. But that’s all history now, and Herro has responded to the offseason noise in the best way possible — by giving Miami some much-needed scoring punch.

The Heat are off to a shaky 1-3 start, not helped by Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler missing a game each, but Herro has been one of the bright spots.

He’s averaging 25 points a game, including 30 on 12-for-21 shooting against the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday, and he’s 11-for-27 on triples in his past three outings. Ten free-throw attempts in Milwaukee was another promising sign after managing just five across the first three games of the season.

Tonight, Herro gets a matchup against a Brooklyn Nets team that’s given up 120 points or more in its last two contests despite starting a trio of long-armed defenders in Mikal Bridges, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Ben Simmons — and the Miami guard again has a path to 20+ field goal attempts.

While the Heat are still adjusting to losing Max Strus and Gabe Vincent in free agency this summer, that’s opened up even more touches for Herro as an every-night starter, and Erik Spoelstra has also used him as the primary scorer in reserve-heavy line-ups.

I see Herro being an offensive spark here as Miami tries to halt a three-game losing skid.

Tyler Herro prop: Over 23.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Lights-out LeBron

In Year 21, it’s hardly surprising that LeBron James is going to pick his spots during the regular season, whether that’s embracing a lighter minutes load or ceding more touches to the Los Angeles Lakers’ supporting cast.

But LeBron can still summon his A game in the big moments — and Wednesday’s Battle of L.A. looms as a marquee prime-time opportunity. The prospect of facing old rival Kawhi Leonard and former teammate Russell Westbrook should translate to James being in attack mode as the Lakers look to improve on a 2-2 start.

Against that backdrop, the LeBron points + assists number feels low. He had 27 points and eight dimes in the overtime loss to the Sacramento Kings on the weekend, on the heels of a 21-8-9 line against the Phoenix Suns last Thursday.

Through four games, James is averaging 22 points and 6.5 assists — and I see him showing up in a big way for this national TV showdown.

It’s the second night of a back-to-back set for the Clippers, so that raises a number of questions about who will be available, in addition to the hype around the James Harden trade. Regardless, this is the kind of game where the Lakers will lean heavily on LeBron and Anthony Davis to lead the way. I’m grabbing these odds for The King to deliver. 

LeBron James prop: Over 26.5 points + assists (-113 at FanDuel)