Best NBA Player Props Today: DeRozan, Stewart Sizzle on Sunday

Prop bet #1: DeRozan dupes Pistons

The Chicago Bulls appear headed for another season on the treadmill of mediocrity, but that doesn’t mean there can’t still be moments of individual brilliance. And their best chance for one of those on Sunday night rests on the shoulders of veteran forward DeMar DeRozan.

DeMar is one of the NBA’s elite scorers, and he bucks modern trends by largely eschewing the 3-point shot in favor of working inside the arc. But he manages to remain efficient despite his heavy diet of mid-range jumpers because he is an elite foul drawer. He’s shooting 82.3% from the foul line on 6.9 attempts per game and has been at those marks or better in 10 out of his last 11 seasons.

DeMar has some of the best footwork in the game and his pump fake is unrivaled. He gets seasoned veterans to jump out of their shoes several times a game every game, so when he goes against a young, inexperienced group like the Detroit Pistons, he feasts. 

And these Pistons are exceptionally foul-prone. 

Ausar Thompson looks like a future All-Defense team level player, but he’s also committed four or more fouls in three of his last five games. Cade Cunningham is averaging a career-high 3.3 fouls per game. As a group, the young Pistons are gifting opponents 28.9 free throw attempts per 100 field goal attempts, by far the worst mark of any team in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass.

DeRozan is averaging 21.4 points per game, but his matchup advantage at the line against Detroit makes this 21.5-point prop in the DeMar DeRozan odds far too low.

DeMar DeRozan prop: Over 21.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Hard3n

The latest James Harden era is off to an abysmal start. The Los Angeles Clippers have lost three straight since the trade and have looked disorganized and disinterested for large stretches of all three games.

But it would be foolish to write off Harden’s individual production just because the team context has been messy early. Harden himself has looked good physically, all things considered, and he’s drawing a weak defensive assignment each night as teams are forced to use their best two defenders to take on Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the few teams having a more difficult start to the season than L.A., and much of their 1-8 start is down to injuries and a lack of defensive continuity. While we’re far removed from the days when Harden required a total team effort or junk defenses to stop him from getting 50, Memphis is still ill-equipped to defend this version of “The Beard.”

The Grizzlies allow more opponent 3-point attempts than all but the Bulls and allow the most above-the-break triples in the NBA. Those shots are Harden's bread-and-butter.

Harden took 7.2 attempts per game last season and hit them at a 38.5% clip. While he’s only taking four threes per game with L.A. he is hitting them at a 50% rate. 

Given the poor results and early pressure on the Clippers, I’m expecting a more aggressive Harden to take advantage of a Memphis defense that willingly concedes the long ball. At significant plus money in the James Harden odds, this is an enticing bet.

James Harden prop: Over 2.5 3s (+140 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Cooking stew

The Pistons have built a wonky roster. While they have keepers in Cunningham, Thompson, and Jalen Duren, they’ve acquired a bizarre amount of big-man depth and a confounding lack of shooting. In order for players in the frontcourt outside of Duren to have a chance of sticking long-term, they're going to have to develop at least a passable outside shot.

Isaiah Stewart, affectionately known by the moniker “Beef Stew,” has been working to transform himself from a non-shooting five into a plus-shooting four. The results were understandably mixed early on. Last season was the first time Stewart began taking 3s in any real volume, and he finished hitting just 32.7% of them.

But there were also signs he was improving. Over his last six games before he was shut down for the year, Stewart cashed in on 42.9% of his 3s on 4.7 attempts per game. If that seemed anomalous at the time, it’s starting to look a little more real now.

Stewart has opened the 2023-24 campaign shooting 42.5% on four attempts per game. He looks comfortable and confident taking them, and his teammates are actively looking to feed him on the perimeter. As the Bulls allow more 3s than any other team, I’m expecting Stewart to get plenty of attempts to prove the skeptics wrong about his improved jumper on Sunday. Get in on these Isaiah Stewart odds while they're still plus-money.

Isaiah Stewart prop: Over 1.5 3s (+105 at FanDuel)