Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Lakers Defense Vulnerable to Randle's Playmaking

It’s a light night in the NBA with just four games on the board to bet on but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value in the player prop market.

We highlight Julius Randle who will look to facilitate his teammates in tonight’s matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers. And can we take advantage of the low-scoring Dallas Mavericks who could be without Luka Doncic once again?

Those and much more in our NBA prop picks for Tuesday, November 23, as we bank on some of the NBA's best to do their thing.

NBA player props for November 23

• Jerami Grant Under 4.5 rebounds (-125)
• Julius Randle Over 4.5 assists (-125)
• Dorian Finney-Smith Under 8.5 points (-130)

Picks made on 11/23/2021 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Making opponents melt on the boards

The Miami Heat look like one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference after an impressive 11-6 start and lead the conference in average point differential. 

The Heat just had a four-game winning streak and a five-game cover streak snapped last time out after falling 103-100 to the upstart Washington Wizards. Miami will look to start a new streak when they visit the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday night.

No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham has shown some signs of life over the last few games but the Pistons still have plenty of growing pains to work out as they are just 4-12 for the season and they have plenty of room for improvement. Detroit ranks 28th in offensive rating and 24th in defensive rating.

But another area the Pistons really need to improve is on the glass. Detroit ranks dead last in rebounding percentage. Now, they face a Miami team that leads the NBA in rebounding percentage and allows the fewest opponent rebounds per game.

That means we are attacking the Under on a Pistons’ rebounding total prop and Jerami Grant looks like the best value. Grant averages just 4.3 rebounds per game and has hauled in five or more boards just three times in his last 11 games. 

It’s hard to see Grant bucking that trend against a Heat team that dominates the glass.

Pick: Jerami Grant Under 4.5 rebounds (-125 at DraftKings)

A passing grade

You can debate the overall effectiveness of New York Knicks’ All-Star Julius Randle, but you can’t debate that he does it all for his team. The power forward averages 20.4 points, with 10 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game for the Knicks this season. 

And Randle will have to do it all when the Knicks welcome the Los Angeles Lakers to town whether or not LeBron James plays in this game (James received a one-game suspension for his tussle with Isaiah Stewart on Sunday but can appeal).

The Lakers are obviously a much different team when LeBron plays, but overall, the defense has struggled this season, particularly when teams are willing to make the extra pass. The Lakers give up the fourth most assists per game in the NBA at 25.6 per contest. 

And when the Knicks offense is really in a groove, the ball doesn’t stop when it hits Randle’s hands. Randle has recorded five or more assists in six of the Knicks’ nine wins this season. He also has five or more assists nine times in 17 games. Look for Randle to get his teammates involved in this one and take Over on his assists total.

Pick: Julius Randle Over 4.5 assists (-125 at FanDuel)

Back-to-back bricks

The Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Clippers play part two of their consecutive games at the Staples Center. The Clippers won the first meeting, covering as 5.5-point home favorites while the Under easily cashed thanks to them limiting the Luka Doncic-less Mavs to just 91 points.

Doncic is still questionable for this matchup with his ankle injury, and scoring is obviously a problem for Dallas sans Doncic. It doesn’t make it any easier that the Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Clippers rank second in the Association in defensive rating and sixth in opponent field goal percentage. 

Now, the Mavericks aren’t a high shooting percentage team, to begin with, but it gets much tougher without Doncic. While some players have seen their usage go up in Doncic’s absence (Kristaps Porzingis, Jalen Brunson, etc.), others have remained pretty much the same, including Dorian Finney-Smith.

The Mavericks forward is averaging just 8.4 points per game this season and is shooting just 39.2 percent from the field. Finney-Smith has put up eight or fewer points in nine of his 16 games this season including just seven in Sunday’s matchup against the Clippers. Finney-Smith looks like a good bet to stay Under his point total once again.

Pick: Dorian Finney-Smith Under 8.5 points (-130 at DraftKings)

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