It’s another jam-packed NBA weekend with a whopping 11 games on the board for Friday, October 28. All three bets we’re taking tonight are for points and assists Overs as we key in on some of the offensive engines that are driving team success so far.
Two of our favorite NBA player prop picks for Friday’s action feature point guards who are taking the leap to stardom, while the third keys in on a wily veteran putting in yeoman's work for one of the league’s surprise teams. Let’s dive in.
NBA player props for October 28
- Haliburton Over 27.5 pts + asts (-110)
- Brunson Over 23.5 pts + asts (-125)
- Olynyk Over 18.5 pts + asts (-115)
Picks made on 10/28/2022 at 3:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Not Pacing himself
In a few years, maybe sooner, we won’t refer to the deal the Sacramento Kings made with the Indiana Pacers last season as the Sabonis trade. While Domantas Sabonis was the only current All-Star in the deal, many criticized Sacramento for cutting bait early on Tyrese Haliburton in exchange for a talented but deeply flawed player in Sabonis.
Haliburton is already makings Kings fans sick with his performance this season and seems destined to ascend to All-Star status sooner rather than later. The simple box score shows staggering production: 22.6 points and 10 assists on 55-41-92 shooting splits in just 32 minutes per game. Haliburton is marrying a combination of scoring effectiveness and volume that would have him talked about as one of the league’s best young players if he wasn’t playing in Indiana.
tyrese from DEEP.
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) October 27, 2022
watch live on????: @BallySportsIN pic.twitter.com/U2QjGhfCBH
His 129.9 points per 100 possessions this season sounds like it shouldn’t be sustainable until you realize he scored 127.9 as the head of the snake in 36 games for the Pacers last season. His jumper, despite a funky unconventional form, is smooth, repeatable, and quick.
A massive development for Haliburton is his growth as a driver. He entered the NBA with a wiry frame that made him shy away from contact at the rim, but no more. He’s doubled his previous career high for free throw attempts so far with five per game this season. He’s got a knack for the floater game and isn’t afraid to go glass if the angle of attack is beneficial to him.
His 45.9% assist percentage currently leads all combo guards, and he finished last season in the 98th percentile per Cleaning the Glass.
Sportsbooks haven’t realized that Haliburton is really this good yet, but it’s plain as day when you look at his statistical profile.
Tyrese Haliburton Prop: Over 27.5 points and assists (-110)
New York, same Brunson
The New York Knicks’ failed pursuit of Donovan Mitchell this offseason muted any positive reaction to the signing of free agent point guard Jalen Brunson. Many thought Brunson was overpaid and the potential for tampering charges put a cloud over the deal before the ink was dry.
Plus, the argument goes, Brunson played alongside Luka Doncic in an offensive environment that made him look better than he would at the head of his own team. Yes, his performance against the Utah Jazz in the playoffs (27.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.2 assists) was impressive but the Jazz were a tire fire of a defense. In short, Brunson faced a lot of skepticism as he suited up to take the reigns as the lead guard of the New York Knicks.
Gonna be dreaming about this play tonight ????
— NEW YORK KNICKS (@nyknicks) October 27, 2022
Goodnight, Knicks fam. pic.twitter.com/voOJyxuaWQ
My, oh my how stupid all that chatter looks now. Brunson has picked up right where he left off against the Jazz, torching opposing defenders with his unique combination of physicality, craft and touch. He’s the most dexterous basketball player you could conjure that also shares physical characteristics with a bowling ball.
His play has instantly infected the New York Knicks with a pace and selflessness that was entirely absent last season, and he’s already proven that he’s the guy who should have the ball with the game on the line. He’s totaled 34 assists in four games and just six turnovers. He’s controlling the tempo every second he’s on the court and seems like he’s been a starting point guard all his life.
Much like with Haliburton, this line suggests that oddsmakers haven’t caught on to the reality that this is just who Jalen Brunson is as a player. Get in while the line is still this favorable.
Jalen Brunson Prop: Over 23.5 points and assists (-125)
Hitting the right notes
The Utah Jazz leading the Western Conference after five games would not have shocked anyone to start this season, providing that the person in question had been in a coma for the last 12 months ,that is. Pegged by many as one of the most likely candidates to participate in the “Lose-o-rama for Wembanyama” sweepstakes, the Jazz have cobbled together a team with a ton of shooting and offensive creation one through five. Collin Sexton has shown out, Lauri Markkanen is earning much-deserved praise, and holdover veterans like Jordan Clarkson are spreading their wings a little bit, too.
But perhaps playing better than any of them is Kelly Olynyk, who continues to be one of the most underrated players in professional basketball. As a lanky white guy whose personal style screams “Dazed and Confused extra” you can be forgiven for not realizing that Olynyk has been an outstanding scorer and playmaking hub for years now.
His 1.269 points per shot attempt leads the Utah Jazz by far, and last season he was north of the 90th percentile for assist percentage among all bigs, per Cleaning the Glass.
He has outstanding touch, he can stroke it from outside, and he’s more than a willing passer from the elbows or in transition. His game-winner against the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday was emblematic of his unique style. He played off his teammates’ movement, made an awkward-looking drive into the paint, and dropped the ball in with a buttery smooth finish.
I’d typically be wary of taking the Over for a road player in Denver, but this Jazz team plays at altitude at home. The Nuggets’ defense has also largely been a mess to start the year, a crafty player like Kelly should be able to take advantage.
Kelly Olynyk Prop: Over 18.5 points and assists (-115 DraftKings)
