We're now in the NBA conference semifinals and this is the time of the season when superstars shine. I'm looking at a trio of All-Stars in the NBA odds and I've decided to back Kyrie Irving and Donovan Mitchell while fading Jayson Tatum.
See why I'm making those bets with my NBA picks and NBA player props for Saturday, May 11.
Best NBA player props today
- Kyrie Irving Over 1.5 steals (+100 at FanDuel)
- Donovan Mitchell 4+ threes (+145 at bet365)
- Jayson Tatum Under 27.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 5-11 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for May 11
Prop bet #1: Uncle Drew effect
Kyrie Irving had just nine points in the Dallas Mavericks' Game 2 upset victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder. That said, the oft-criticized guard contributed in other ways, dishing out 11 assists with a pair of steals and two blocks in 41 minutes.
Irving has stepped up his defensive play over the last month and has racked up more than 1.5 steals in nine of his last 10 games. With the guard struggling to fill up the hoop at his usual rate, expect him to stay focused on the defensive end of the floor and cut off passing lanes while pressuring the ball.
As long as the Over 1.5 steals for Irving is priced at close to even money, it will be worth it to keep riding him on this prop until he starts to fall short.
Kyrie Irving prop: Over 1.5 steals (+100 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: Downtown Don
Donovan Mitchell is the Cleveland Cavaliers' go-to scorer and they will need some red-hot shooting from him if they want to upset the Boston Celtics in Game 3. Mitchell struggled to knock down shots from deep in Round 1 against a Magic squad with excellent perimeter defense, but he's been lights out in this series.
He went 4-for-11 from deep in Game 1 and 5-for-7 from long range in Game 2. The O/U for Mitchell's threes is set at 2.5 with the Over juiced to -180, but there's better value in backing him to hit the milestone of 4+ treys at +145.
Keep in mind that since the start of the new year, Mitchell has drained at least four 3-pointers in 18 of 32 regular season games. He also played well in two regular-season meetings against Boston, going 5-for-13 from deep in the first clash on December 12.
Mitchell will either need to be efficient from deep for the Cavs to be competitive tonight, or he'll end up attempting a high number of threes if they fall behind early.
Donovan Mitchell prop: 4+ threes made (+145 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Limiting the damage
Jayson Tatum averaged 26.9 points per game during the regular season, but given his recent production, his points total of 27.5 for tonight looks too high. Tatum has gone Over this number just once in his last 13 games and he's averaging 21.6 ppg over that span.
In the lone contest during that span where Tatum eclipsed 27.5 points, he finished with 28. He also had 25 points in Game 2 against the Cavs, dropped 18 points in the series opener, and scored fewer than 27.5 points in all three regular-season meetings with Cleveland.
As good as Tatum is, the Celtics have plenty of other scoring options, and the Cavs are a strong defensive team that prefers a slower tempo. With the Celtics also slowing their pace down in the playoffs, fewer possessions for both teams should also work against Tatum's scoring numbers.
Jayson Tatum prop: Under 27.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)
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